Market Analysis and Neighborhood Guide December 2025
After 20 years selling apartments in Manhattan, I've seen every market cycle. What we're experiencing now is unprecedented: a supply crisis that isn't going away.
Manhattan remains the global benchmark for ultra-luxury real estate. While Miami, Dubai, and London have made strides, NYC still commands the highest prices per square foot for trophy properties—and still attracts the world's most sophisticated buyers. Buildings like 220 Central Park South, 15 Central Park West, and Central Park Tower set the standard that other cities try to match.
New development inventory has dropped 28% since August 2022. The 421a tax abatement expired. The 2019 tenant protection law killed rental-to-condo conversions—and made rent-stabilized apartments permanently rent-stabilized. Construction costs are up 30%. There simply aren't enough apartments being built to meet demand.
My Take: Prices will continue rising, especially in desirable neighborhoods. If you're waiting for a crash, you'll be waiting a long time. The fundamentals have shifted.
|
Metric |
December 2025 |
|---|---|
|
Median Condo Price |
$1.95M |
|
Median Co-op Price |
$850K |
|
New Development Inventory |
3,953 units (down 28%) |
|
Average Days on Market |
85 days |
|
Price Per SF (New Dev) |
$1,800–$4,500+ |
Updated December 2025
Not every neighborhood offers the same value. Here's my honest assessment of where the opportunities are—and where you might be overpaying.
FiDi has transformed. It's not the ghost town it was during COVID—it's bustling day and night. One Wall Street and The Greenwich (125 Greenwich) don't just offer great value—they elevate the entire neighborhood. One Wall Street has Whole Foods, Lifetime Fitness, and Printemps in the base, bringing destination retail downtown. The Greenwich was designed by Rafael Viñoly (432 Park architect) with amenities on the top three floors. Both buildings are raising the bar for what FiDi can be.
Price range: $1,200–$2,200/SF. My verdict: Undervalued. Buy now before prices rise.
The prime UES (Fifth to Lexington) is dominated by co-ops with boards that make the Supreme Court look casual. But east of Third Avenue? New construction at reasonable prices. The Strathmore at 400 E 84th is a great example—prices are attractive and that part of the UES is very popular now.
Price range: $1,400–$1,800/SF. My verdict: Good value with easy access to Central Park and Museum Mile.
This might sound like a sales pitch, but it's economics. Every new development currently selling was built with pre-tariff material costs. With tariffs of 20-50% now hitting steel, aluminum, lumber, gypsum, and copper, the next generation of buildings will cost 20-30% more to construct—and those costs will be passed on to buyers. The buildings on the market today are the last of the "cheap" inventory. Once they sell out, replacement cost pricing takes over.
My verdict: Buy now. Current inventory is a bargain compared to what's coming next.
The Grand Dame of Downtown. Most Village real estate has landmark protection—there are rarely new projects, and it's perpetually a seller's market. When something does launch, it sells fast. 80 Clarkson Street is the current crown jewel: the Zeckendorfs (of 15 Central Park West fame) building 45 stories of ultra-luxury. Over $1 billion in contracts signed, though sales haven't been publicly reported yet. The Village West at 525 Sixth Avenue is also selling fast.
Price range: $2,500–$4,500/SF. My verdict: You're paying a premium, but supply will never increase. If you want the Village, buy when you find something.
Tribeca attracts financiers, tech entrepreneurs, and celebrities who want space and privacy. The neighborhood has abundant lofts, converted warehouses, and a few new developments. Expect fierce competition for well-priced units.
Price range: $2,200–$4,000/SF. My verdict: Blue-chip neighborhood. Holds value in any market.
Central Park Tower is a standout—the tallest residential building in the Western Hemisphere with amenity space on the 100th floor and an outdoor pool, which is extremely rare in NYC. 111 West 57th Street (Steinway Tower) offers incredible architecture. 53 W 53 sits above MoMA with Jean Nouvel design. Buildings like One57, 432 Park, and 220 Central Park South have mostly sold out, proving the market for ultra-luxury on 57th Street.
Price range: $3,000–$10,000+/SF. My verdict: Central Park Tower is the flagship of Billionaire's Row.
Manhattan is roughly 75% co-ops, 25% condos. Most buyers default to condos because they've heard co-ops are "difficult." But the reality is more nuanced.
|
Factor |
Condo |
Co-op |
|---|---|---|
|
What You Own |
Real property (the unit) |
Shares in a corporation |
|
Board Approval |
Usually waived or rubber stamp |
Required. Can reject without reason. |
|
Down Payment |
10-20% typical |
20-50%, some all-cash only |
|
Renting Out |
Generally allowed |
Often restricted (1-2 yrs out of 5) |
|
Foreign Buyers |
Welcome |
Often restricted |
|
Price Per SF |
20-40% higher |
More affordable |
My Take: Co-ops can offer more space for the money, but the board process is invasive—tax returns, reference letters, interviews. And the restrictions on renting and reselling can be limiting. For most buyers, especially international clients, condos are the better choice.
Over 70% of my clients are international buyers. Manhattan welcomes foreign investment—no visa or residency required to purchase. But there are nuances:
Best neighborhoods for international buyers: Financial District (One Wall Street, The Greenwich), Hudson Yards, Midtown East (Waldorf Astoria), and any new development condo. These buildings are accustomed to foreign buyers and the transaction process is smoother.
My Take: For international buyers and investors: new development condos are the clear choice. For buyers who want more space and don't mind renovation: prewar apartments offer more square footage per dollar. For everyone else: it depends on your priorities. I help clients weigh these tradeoffs daily.
|
Step |
Condo |
Co-op |
|---|---|---|
|
1. Search |
2-8 weeks |
2-8 weeks |
|
2. Offer |
1-2 weeks negotiation |
1-2 weeks negotiation |
|
3. Contract |
Attorney review, 10% deposit |
Attorney review, 10% deposit |
|
4. Board |
Waived or minimal review |
Full package + interview (4-8 weeks) |
|
5. Closing |
60-90 days from contract |
90-120+ days from contract |
Rule of Thumb: Budget 3-5% of purchase price for closing costs on a condo, 2-3% on a co-op (no title insurance). New developments: add another 1-2% since buyer typically pays transfer taxes.
Beyond the purchase price, Manhattan apartments have ongoing costs that vary significantly by building type and age. Understanding these is critical to budgeting.
My Take: New development condos with tax abatements often have lower total carrying costs than older co-ops, despite higher common charges. Run the full numbers before assuming co-ops are cheaper.
I sell in both markets. Many of my clients own in both. Here's how they compare—and when each makes sense.
|
Factor |
New York |
Miami |
|---|---|---|
|
State Income Tax |
10.9% |
0% |
|
City Income Tax |
3.88% |
0% |
|
Luxury Price/SF |
$1,800–$4,500+ |
$1,200–$3,500 |
|
Ultra-Luxury/SF |
$5,000–$12,000+ |
$3,000–$5,000 |
|
Market Liquidity |
Deepest in world |
Growing rapidly |
|
Long-term Appreciation |
Proven 100+ years |
Strong but shorter track record |
|
Closing Costs |
4-6% |
2-3% |
|
Rental Yields |
2-3% |
4-6% |
|
Weather |
Four seasons |
Year-round warm |
|
Hurricane Risk |
Minimal |
Real consideration |
Choose NYC if: You want the deepest, most liquid real estate market in the world. Proven long-term appreciation. Global prestige. Culture, dining, and walkability that Miami can't match. You're willing to pay higher taxes for the NYC lifestyle.
Choose Miami if: Tax savings are a priority. You want waterfront living. You need rental income and flexibility. You prefer newer construction with amenities. You want a second home in a warm climate.
Choose both if: Many of my clients maintain a primary residence in NYC (for work, culture, established life) and a Miami property (for tax residency, winter escape, rental income). Establishing Florida domicile while keeping a NYC pied-à-terre is a common strategy—consult a tax attorney to do it correctly.
Condos typically require 10-20% down. Co-ops often require 20-50% down, with some buildings requiring all-cash purchases or limiting financing to 50% of purchase price. New developments from sponsors sometimes offer more flexible terms.
When you buy a condo, you own real property (the unit itself). When you buy a co-op, you purchase shares in a corporation that owns the building, plus a proprietary lease for your unit. Co-ops have stricter board approval, higher down payments, and more restrictions on renting—but often cost less per square foot.
Yes. Foreign buyers can purchase condos without restriction—no visa or residency required. Co-ops often restrict or reject foreign buyers. FIRPTA withholding (15% of sale price) applies when foreign owners sell. Financing is available through select international lenders with 30-40% down.
From accepted offer to closing: 60-90 days for condos, 90-120+ days for co-ops (due to board approval process). The search phase varies from weeks to months depending on your criteria and market conditions. Co-op board packages take 2-4 weeks to prepare.
Budget 3-5% for condos (mansion tax, transfer taxes, attorney, title insurance) and 2-3% for co-ops (no title insurance). New development purchases: add 1-2% since buyers typically pay NYS/NYC transfer taxes. Mansion tax alone is 1-3.9% on purchases over $1M.
Billionaire's Row (57th Street corridor), Tribeca, the West Village, Central Park South, and the Upper East Side's Gold Coast along Fifth and Park Avenues command the highest prices—$3,000 to $12,000+ per square foot for trophy properties.
Property taxes vary significantly. Without abatements, budget 1-1.5% of assessed value annually. Co-op maintenance includes property taxes. Always ask about abatement status before buying.
Condos generally allow rentals with minimal restrictions. Co-ops typically limit subletting to 1-2 years out of every 5, and some prohibit rentals entirely. If rental flexibility is important, buy a condo. Always verify the specific building's policy before purchasing.
New development inventory is down 28% since 2022 and unlikely to recover—the 421a tax abatement expired, construction costs are up 30%, and tariffs of 20-50% will make future projects even more expensive. Current inventory was built with pre-tariff costs. If you're waiting for prices to drop, you may be waiting a long time.
Different markets for different goals. Manhattan offers: deepest market liquidity, proven 100+ year appreciation, global prestige, no hurricane risk. Miami offers: zero state income tax, lower prices per SF, higher rental yields, easier buying process. Many investors own in both. I can help you evaluate based on your specific situation.
I've been selling Manhattan apartments since 2005. Over 70% of my clients are international buyers—from Brazil, Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. I understand the unique challenges: financing, FIRPTA, estate planning, and navigating buildings that don't always welcome foreign buyers.
Last Updated: December 2025
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