تحليل سوق العقارات في مانهاتن

التحوّل نحو الانكماش في سوق عقارات مانهاتن في النصف الثاني من 2022

كان عام 2022 حكاية سوقين في مانهاتن.

واصل مطلع 2022 زخم الطفرة التي انطلقت مع بداية 2021، مدفوعةً بانفجار الطلب المكبوت وبيئة معدلات فائدة مصطنعة المنخفض نفّذها الاحتياطي الفيدرالي في فجر جائحة كوفيد.

في يونيو 2022، وعقب تطبيق الاحتياطي الفيدرالي أول رفع جامبو للمعدل القياسي بمقدار 75 نقطة أساس، تراجع السوق بسرعة، تاركاً معظم المشترين والبائعين في مأزق لبقية العام في حين تأقلموا مع حقائق السوق الجديدة. يظهر ذلك في الرسم البياني أدناه الذي يقارن نشاط العقود الشهري.

نشاط العقود الشهري

مع 602 عقد موقّع فقط في ديسمبر 2022، كان ذلك من أسوأ نهايات العام منذ 2008. مع تكيّف المشترين والبائعين مع الواقع الجديد، نتوقع أن يستعيد السوق حركته مطلع 2023 إذ لا يزال الطلب قائماً.

أسعار عقارات مانهاتن

الشقق الفندقية

• متوسط سعر البيع 2.75 مليون دولار
• متوسط السعر لكل قدم مربع 2,074 دولار
• وعلى الرغم من أن ذلك يمثّل ارتفاعاً عن الربع المماثل من العام الماضي، فإن الزيادة جاءت في معظمها بسبب صفقات إغلاق تمّت في حفنة من الأبراج الفاخرة الاستثنائية كـCentral Park Tower و220 Central Park South، مما أعلى المتوسط.
• فعلياً، بقي السعر للقدم المربع ثابتاً من عام لآخر عند أقل بقليل من 2,000 دولار للقدم المربع.

الشقق التعاونية

• متوسط سعر البيع 1.27 مليون دولار
• متوسط السعر لكل قدم مربع 1,225 دولار

• متوسط سعر البيع 3.19 مليون دولار
• متوسط السعر لكل قدم مربع 2,415 دولار
  

قطاع الفاخر (أعلى 10% من المبيعات)

• متوسط سعر البيع 8.06 مليون دولار
• متوسط السعر لكل قدم مربع 2,909 دولار
• عتبة دخول الفاخر 3.95 مليون دولار

رفع الاحتياطي الفيدرالي للمعدلات في 2022

في غضون 10 أشهر فحسب من عام 2022، رفع الاحتياطي الفيدرالي معدل أموال الاحتياطي القياسي بمقدار 4.0%، كما يوضح الرسم البياني أدناه. جاء هذا الإجراء غير المسبوق لمحاولة كبح التضخم، الذي كان ظاهرة عالمية في 2022.

وعلى الرغم من أن المعدلات الحالية أعلى مما كانت عليه منذ 2008، إلا أنها بلغت مستويات مماثلة من قبل وسارت الأسواق العقارية بشكل مقبول في تلك البيئة. غير أن الأمر الأكثر إثارة للقلق هو وتيرة ارتفاع المعدلات هذا العام، المكثّفة في 10 أشهر فقط، مما ترجم إلى ارتفاع معدل القرض العقاري الجامبو الثابت لـ30 عاماً من 3.1% في الأول من يناير 2022 إلى 5.7% في الحادي والثلاثين من ديسمبر 2022، منخفضاً عن 6.35% في أكتوبر.

في مانهاتن نسبة عالية من المشترين النقديين (نحو 55%) مقارنةً بالمدن الأخرى، لذا لا تؤدي معدلات الفائدة دائماً دوراً محورياً في النشاط هنا. فضلاً عن ذلك، فإن الشقق التعاونية التي تُمثّل 70% من المخزون وتنفرد بها مدينة نيويورك، تضع قواعد صارمة بشأن نسبة التمويل المسموح بها. بعضها يتيح 70% كحد أقصى للتمويل، وكثير منها لا يتجاوز 50%، وبعضها يمنع التمويل كلياً. هذه عوامل مخففة لسوق نيويورك، لكنها لا تُسعف المشتري لأول مرة الذي يحتاج في الغالب إلى قرض عقاري.

شح المعروض في مانهاتن ينقذ الموقف

الشعاع المضيء في هذه القصة هو ضآلة المعروض في السوق. مقارنةً بنهاية 2020 حين كانت مستويات المخزون تتجاوز 8,100 وحدة، يقف المعروض اليوم عند 5,858 وحدة فحسب. لذلك أسباب متعددة ناقشتها في أغسطس وأوجزتها أدناه.

يجب أن يضع المعروض المحدود حدّاً أدنى لأي تراجع محتمل في الأسعار مع دخولنا عام 2023. ولا نرى مخزوناً جديداً يدخل السوق قريباً لأي من الأسباب التالية:

• الرهون العقارية كالقيود الذهبية
• 80% من سكان نيويورك الحاملين لرهون عقارية لديهم معدلات أدنى من 5%.
• هذا سيدفع الملاك إلى البقاء في منازلهم الحالية إلى أجل غير مسمى.
• لن يتنازل أحد عن رهنه بمعدل 3% مقابل رهن بمعدل 6% في القريب العاجل.

• تجميد سوق تحويل الإيجار إلى ملكية بسبب قانون ولاية نيويورك لعام 2019
• يُعاقب القانون ملاك المباني التي تضم مستأجرين بإيجارات مستقرة، مما يجعل تحويلها إلى شقق بأسعار السوق أمراً مستحيلاً عملياً. ما لم يُعدَّل هذا القانون، لن يكون ثمة تحويلات على الإطلاق، إذ لا منطق مالي فيها للمطوّر.
• انتهاء برامج الإعفاء الضريبي يُغلي تكاليف البناء أمام المطورين
• ترجمة: The 421a, 421g, J-51 abatements all expired.
• كانت هذه في السابق أدوات مهمة استخدمتها الحكومة لتحفيز المطورين على البناء، لكنها لم تعد قائمة.
• Leftist NYC politicians have been vetoing projects with generous 30% and 50% الإسكان الميسر components
• Few Manhattan land المبيعات in the last two السنوات, so not very many المطورون are planning to بناء in the city.
• أبطأت التضخم كثيرًا من المشاريع، إذ لم تعد التكاليف معروفة كما كانت في الأوقات العادية.

Manhattan Real Estate توقعات 2023

توقع كثير من الخبراء انخفاض أسعار المنازل حول العالم خلال العام المقبل. This will likely happen, however, mainly in those places that had the مرتفعest drive ارتفاع in الأسعار during Covid. In the US, many smaller cities are at the مرتفعest risk as those are where الأسعار rose the most. Places like Boise, ID, Salt Lake City, UT, Phoenix, AZ and all of Connecticut it seems.

غير أن جديد York City لم تكن من هذه الأماكن. In fact, جديد York City الأسعار تراجعd during Covid as there was a mass exodus of the city at the beginning of Covid. الأسعار only recovered those losses in 2021 and posted modest زيادات in comparison to most other cities.

Knight Frank’s Prime Residential توقع نتوقعs Manhattan الأسعار to ارتفاع at least 2% in 2023 behind Miami (5% زيادة) and Los Angeles ([[[P0002]]] زيادة) in the US. That level of زيادة places Manhattan in 13th place in their توقع of the top 25 global cities, demonstrating resilience and confidence in the city (and the US in general). (4%)

يُشير Knight Frank إلى «هروب رأس المال إلى الملاذات الآمنة» و«المشترين من الخارج… الساعين إلى زيادة، لا تقليص، التعرض للدولار الأميركي». No doubt, the factors I note about منخفض المعروض will help offset هبوطward السعر pressure from Fed actions in 2023.

Manhattan and Miami العقار السوقs Will See يستمرd قوة

A lot of people have been asking us about what we think is going to happen in the NYC and Miami السوقs now that the Fed has raised الأسعار. While النشاط has sمنخفضed هبوط, both السوقs are still very النشط based on historical measures.

يتساءل كثيرون عمّا إذا كان التباطؤ سيؤدي إلى تراجع في الأسعار. While some experts are saying this will definitely happen in some regions of the country, given how fast الأسعار went ارتفاع in those regions, they are نتوقعing the odds of السعر تراجعات in Manhattan and Miami to be منخفض or Very منخفض risk, respectively.

CoreLogic تحليل - June 2022: Probability الأسعار will تراجع

وفقًا لـترجمة: CoreLogic, metro NYC has a منخفض probability and Miami has a Very منخفض probability of seeing السعر drops over the next 12 الأشهر.

مانهاتن

الأسعار

الأسعار didn’t ارتفاع at the same السعر as other locations across the country. The العقار السوق crashed in 2020 (with الأسعار declining, on average [[[P0001]]]) and only started rebounding in Q1 2021, once vaccines were out (with الأسعار ارتفاع on average 16%). (7%)

1. Considering الأسعار in Manhattan rose 4.5% per السنة over the last 10 السنوات, a net زيادة of 9% ([[[P0002]]] less 7%) is about the equivalent of 2 السنوات of normal السعر growth. (16%)
2. Rental الأسعار are ارتفاع 20% على أساس سنوي causing yields to spike, making it a ممتاز time for المستثمرون to شراء Manhattan العقار (especially since الأسعار didn’t spike).
3. We نتوقع Manhattan rental السعر hikes to يستمر, as الرهن العقاري الأسعار cause less first time homeالمشترون to شراء in the coming 12 الأشهر and forcing more people into the rental السوق.
4. Manhattan’s مرتفع العقار الأسعار يستمر to be sارتفاعported by مرتفع local incomes, as the UBS Global Bubble تقرير has consistently تقريرed.
5. Manhattan is a long term play. المستثمرون شراء Manhattan العقار for safety. Given the costs involved, it is not a place for naked speculation or flipping.
6. 50% of Manhattan يدفع المشترون نقدًا for their العقار purchases, especially in the الفاخر segment, so they are not as affected by shifting أسعار الفائدة.
7. الشقق التعاونية make ارتفاع 75% of housing stock. Many الشقق التعاونية don’t alمنخفض التمويل or limit it to 50%. This fact buoyed Manhattan real estate during the Lehman crisis.
8. ترجمة: However, underwriting is very strict so this is not a 2008 scenario.

المعروض

1. المعروض is relatively منخفض for the best NYC كوندومينيوم projects in prime areas.
2. المعروض is هبوط 10% over the same الشهر last السنة.
3. Looking at الفاخر كوندومينيومs, there are very few of them in the قيد التطوير.
4. Every now and then we get requests from المستثمرون looking for bulk كوندومينيوم deals in Manhattan. In 2018, there were quite a few and lots of المباني with at least 50 units to بيع.
5. In preparing a recent تحليل for two sepaالسعر المستثمرون (one doing a very large 1031 transaction), however, I noted that there are very few stellar المباني coming on the السوق in the next 3-5 السنوات beمنخفض 96th St. And, the number of المباني with more than 50 units to بيع dropped significantly compared to four السنوات ago.
6. Some المباني that were sitting in the قيد التطوير that we were anxiously awaiting, likeذا كورتلاند, One مرتفع Line and One Wall Street have commenced المبيعات. These are all very مرتفع-end projects. Beyond these, there are few top كوندومينيومs coming in prime areas.
7. The lack of المعروض of quality product will likely push ارتفاع الأسعار further, until there is a الطلب and المعروض equilibrium.his will likely take السنوات.
8. The expiration of the 421a ضريبة abatement, which, in the past had incentivized المطورون to بناء كوندومينيومs and rental المباني, has led to fewer التطوير الجديدs in the قيد التطوير.
9. جديد York’s liberal politicians don’t have the appetite to incentivize المطورون to بناء, so we don’t see this incentive coming back.
10. Of course, these politicians are short sighted. The lack of incentives to المطورون will only a) reduce the amount of الإسكان الميسر being built (a requirement for جديد construction projects in Manhattan), b) reduce revenues for the city and state, and c) further زيادة rental الأسعار for tenants.

ميامي

Miami’s جديدfound قوة comes from:

1. a huge influx of (الثروةy) residents fleeing مرتفع ضريبة states;
2. ترجمة: an influx of residents looking for more liberties and less covid restrictions as Florida had very lax restrictions during the pandemic;
3. ترجمة: an influx of hedge funds and tech companies moving to Miami;
4. a very منخفض المعروض of single family homes and كوندومينيومs (especially larger ones); and
5. an empty قيد التطوير.

While النشاط has sمنخفضed in recent الأشهر, it is not because of الطلب. It is really about المعروض. The الطلب for Miami (and all South Florida) single-family homes and كوندومينيومs has been so ممتاز, المخزون has been whittled away. And, جديد المعروض is not نتوقعed to have much of an effect on the السوق until the next المبنى cycle is in full swing. We نتوقع this to be 5-7 السنوات, as there is virtually nothing coming on the السوق over the next 3 السنوات.

I discuss this in depth in my video beمنخفض:

العناوين والمتوسطات

I always enjoy listening to Leonard Steinberg of Compass. In a recent post, he warned المشترون and البائعون not to believe the headlines and not to look too much at the averages. And he is definitely right.

1. سوق العقارات شديد المحلية.
2. Don’t confuse headlines in one السوق (or across the country) with another السوق.
3. Manhattan is a truly unique السوق (for many reasons) and national trends don’t apply, as history has shown us.
4. The same can be said for Miami, which, currently, is experiencing a huge growth surge. This is why Miami has a Very منخفض probability of seeing السعر تراجعات according to CoreLogic.
5. In Manhattan, we see how hyper local the السوق can be. Here we assess المباني individually, as often neighboring المباني can have totally different pricing, totally different الطلب, totally different trajectory, etc.
6. In Miami, we see how hyper local the السوق can be as well. الأسعار and الطلب on the beach have virtually no relation to الأسعار and الطلب for some الأحياء on the mainland.

Therefore, don’t get caught ارتفاع in the averages, as the averages only tell us about what happened in the السوق as a whole and essentially nothing about what happened in a particular المبنى (or line of a المبنى, for that matter).

We are here to help you navigate through the Manhattan and Miami السوقs. Schedule a quick call with me if I can shed light on anything else you are contemplating. I would be happy to discuss both السوقs in further detail, provide a valuation for your home if you are thinking about بيعing, or send you a search of العقارات.

صيف سعيد!

The السنة 2021 will undoubtedly be one of the best السنوات in residential real estate in Manhattan’s history, topping $9.5B in closed المبيعات in the third الربع alone, the most closed المبيعات in one الربع in 32 السنوات.

المبيعات النشاط was spurred by unleashed pent-ارتفاع الطلب, ارتفاع vaccine adoption, reasonable pricing, record منخفض-أسعار الفائدة, a shift to larger spaces (or those with outdoor space), and زيادةd personal الثروة.

This $9.5 billion refers to deals that closed in 2021, not necessarily signed in the الربع, which is a more current barometer of the السوق.

العقود Signed هبوط for Summer Season, but Still at Record For the الربع

As you can see by the chart beمنخفض, العقود signed النشاط has been at elevated levels since the beginning of the السنة, although it has been tapering off. Such tapering could be a result of seasonality, as summer الأشهر are usually sمنخفضer than the rest of the السنة. That being said, المبيعات for the الربع were record breaking.

While 29% منخفضer than the previous الربع, 3,500 deals were signed in the الربع. At 270 deals per week in the الربع, that is a record breaking number. October يستمرs the trend, clocking in approx. 305 deals a week.

البائعون are Happy, but Not Too Happy

البائعون in 2021 have been very happy, especially after a dearth of المبيعات in 2020. المشترون are out there, so الطلب is very قوي, especially in the الفاخر segment where you will find the larger شقق.

Although النشاط has been significantly heightened for most of the السنة, fear is not gone yet, so الأسعار are not ارتفاع beyond those of pre-covid. The covid خصم of 6-9% (depending ارتفاعon when you bought last السنة), has disappeared, but we have not seen السعر زيادات over 2019 levels yet.

With all this النشاط, one would think الأسعار are ready to ارتفاع again. Generally, السعر زيادات usually happen within 9 to 12 الأشهر after a marked improvement in المبيعات النشاط. Check your calendars, as we will begin to enter into this phase in short order.

Overالسعرd Units Languish on the السوق

As pricing has been flat with 2019 levels, Q3 was not the time to list a العقار at aspirational الأسعار. In the الربع, العقارات السعرd to the السوق took 78 days to بيع. In contrast, العقارات that required a السعر adjustment took 181 days to بيع - more than double (2.3x) those السعرd to the current السوق.

Current Pricing in the الربع

Note: Usually, I like to compare the الربع numbers to the previous الربع, however, in Q3 2020 one-third of the الربع’s المبيعات volume were attributed to closings at 220 Central Park South, the most expensive جديد كوندومينيوم المبنى in جديد York City. 16 units closed at an average السعر of $37M, for a total of $592M. Accordingly, I am just showing you the current الربع’s figures. If you want more detailed information, please reach out to me.

إحصاءات أخرى مثيرة للاهتمام:

• المبيعات النشاط rose to the مرتفعest السعر in 32 السنوات.
• Even with record منخفض أسعار الفائدة, approximately 50% of the deals were all نقدًا
• التطوير الجديد المبيعات beمنخفض $3M grew 2x as fast as above $3M, which still doubled from the same الربع last السنة. A shift to smaller sized units in التطوير الجديد skewed the السعر trend منخفضer.
• Listing خصم across all segments averaged 5.3% for the الربع
• Total الأشهر of المعروض of كوندومينيومs and coops, the number of الأشهر it would take to بيع all المخزون for بيع, fell to only 5.1.
  
  

فاتك القاع. لا تفوّت التعافي!

Manhattan Bمنخفضs Past the السوق Bottom as العقد النشاط Explodes

The second الربع of 2021 was a blockbuster الربع, proving everyone wrong that city living was dead. Manhattan has rebounded to the best spring بيعing season in 6 السنوات and has had the مرتفعest المبيعات النشاط since 2007.

Pent-ارتفاع الطلب, reasonable pricing, منخفض-أسعار الفائدة, a desire to ارتفاعgrade to large spaces (or those with outdoor space), زيادةd personal الثروة, and a larger pool of المشترون have driven ارتفاع المبيعات volume. In sum, the city is booming, thanks to science and, in turn, a reجديدed optimism.

ملاحظة: في هذا التحديث، أقارن Q2 2021 مع Q2 2019, وهو أكثر ملاءمة بكثير من Q2 2020, عندما كانت NYC في حالة إغلاق.

العقود Signed Skyrocket

قفزت العقود الموقعة في الربع بنسبة 60% مقارنة بالربع نفسه في 2019. ولن تُغلق كثير من هذه الصفقات حتى Q3 2021, وعندها نتوقع بعض الحركة السعرية الإيجابية، بالنظر إلى حجم ومزيج الشقق التي دخلت في عقود خلال الربع.

Larger شقق Back in Vogue

The sارتفاعer-prime السوق (>$10M) had the best first half on record, fueled by double digit خصومات from their original pricing. In addition, there has been a notable زيادة in larger شقق بيعing, which has been ممتاز for the >$5M السوق.

The المبيعات mix which included a significant shift to the بيع of larger شقق, skewed السعر trends, bringing the , While the median المبيعات السعر rose to $1,130,000, the مرتفعest since reaching [[[P0002]]] in Q2 2019, السعر trends were skewed because of the mix of المبيعات. ($1,215,000)

Covid خصم Dissipating

Compared to the same الربع last السنة, the average السعر لكل قدم مربع تراجعd 3.6%. This has been heralded as the “Covid خصم”. The first الربع saw this spread at 9%, which shows that the covid خصم is quickly compressing. We نتوقع the covid خصم to dissipate in Q3 and be gone by Q4, as employers disيستمر or limit “working from home.”

Current Pricing in the الربع:

إحصاءات أخرى مثيرة للاهتمام:

• كوندومينيوم المبيعات النشاط rose to the مرتفعest السعر in 30 السنوات.
• التطوير الجديد المبيعات above $3 million were the ممتازest in three السنوات.
• المبيعات النشاط rose faster than جديد المخزون coming on the السوق, which resulted in the الأشهر of المعروض dipping to 6.9 الأشهر, the fastest pace in 4 السنوات.
• Overall listing خصم was 6.4%

إذا فاتك القاع، فلا تفوّت التعافي!

April 2021 العقود Top

March 14-السنة Record

Manhattan العقد النشاط يستمرd to ارتفاع to a جديد record in April 2021 of 1,607 العقود signed beating out March’s 14-السنة record of 1,500 العقود in a single الشهر. The first week of May يستمرs the trend and so far May is on track to match April.

At 1,607 العقود signed, that is 50% مرتفعer than April 2019, a pre-covid comparable الشهر. April 2020 had only 213 العقود signed (presumably initiated pre-covid. As a reminder, جديد York City was shut هبوط with showings prohibited, from the end of March through the end of June 2020.

On the الفاخر front, according to the Real Deal, there have been 652 الفاخر العقود signed السنة-to-date thru the end of April, which is more than all of the الفاخر العقود signed in the entire السنة 2020.

On the التطوير الجديد front, April saw 235 العقود signed ارتفاع from 165 in March. It was Manhattan’s مرتفعest level of النشاط in the التطوير الجديد segment in three السنوات.

Manhattan ارتفاعs From the Ashes

After an extremely disappointing 2020, when the island of Manhattan was plagued by a “Covid exodus” and physically shut هبوط for 90 days, the Manhattan residential المبيعات السوق rose from the ashes in the first الربع of 2021. While the السوق had been creeping ارتفاع in November and December 2020, the First الربع 2021 and, in particular, March 2021 saw stunning المبيعات النشاط.

المبيعات النشاط Way ارتفاع in Q1 2021

Manhattan المبيعات grew at a blistering pace in March 2021, with المبيعات volume topping 1,500 العقود signed, the best single الشهر in 14 السنوات. Even January and February 2021 saw المبيعات volume beat prior السنة الأشهر for at least the last three السنوات, as shown beمنخفض:

المشترون have been taking advantage of the combination of record منخفض الرهن العقاري الأسعار and منخفضer الأسعار. They are also encouraged by the جديد administration, which NYC is already benefiting from, in contrast to the last administration which was determined to punish جديد York City for overwhelmingly rejecting Trump.

الأسعار هبوط, But Not in Free Fall

رغم تراجع الأسعار، فإنها لم تهبط كما افترض بعضهم. كان السعر لكل قدم مربع لكوندومينيوم في Manhattan أقل بنسبة 8.8% في Q1 2021 مقارنةً بـ Q1 2020. ويأتي ذلك فوق انخفاض الأسعار منذ إقرار SALT cap في 2018, وهو ما خفّض الأسعار في NYC بمتوسط 11% وفقًا للاقتصادي Robert Schiller. لذا فإن الأسعار بعيدة جدًا عن ذروتها قبل بضع سنوات، وهي مهيأة للانعطاف. ومع إدارة "زرقاء"، فإن SALT cap، الذي يعاقب الولايات الزرقاء، لديه فرصة جيدة للاختفاء في 2021. وسيصب ذلك في مصلحة أسعار العقارات ويخفف وتيرة النزوح إلى الولايات منخفضة الضرائب.

التطوير الجديد Deals يبقى

There are still التطوير الجديد bargains to be had, as الأسعار have been reduced significantly for projects introduced 3 السنوات ago. Recently launched projects, however, have been السعرd to current السوق, so not a lot of خصومات there. While some of the خصومات are showing ارتفاع in منخفضer الأسعار, many of the خصومات are concealed in closing cost concessions. These don’t show ارتفاع in the السعر per square figures. The magnitude of خصومات on التطوير الجديد vary widely, as they are dependent on factors such as when the project was launched, بيع velocity to-date, the number of يبقىing units available in a particular line, the equity partners in the capital stack, and most importantly lenders' minimum release الأسعار (the banks really control the السعر, not the المطور).

To get the best deal in التطوير الجديد, you need to have an open mind and not get set on something that isn't going to garner the مرتفعest خصومات. For instance, المطورون are neither offering large خصومات on شقق with outdoor space nor on lines that are almost sقديم out.

This chart beمنخفض shows how التطوير الجديد pricing has regained some of its footing from its منخفضs a few الأشهر ago.

اللقاحات تعزّز الثقة

We نتوقع العقار الأسعار to start inching ارتفاع in the Spring/Summer and throughout the يبقىder of the السنة as NYC becomes vaccinated. To-date,ترجمة: 44% of Manhattanites have already received their first dose of the vaccine and 27% are fully vaccinated. As we reach 70% of the population being fully vaccinated, activities will revert back to normal including the full opening of restaurants and movie theaters (partially open now), Broadway Shows, and Sports venues, etc. Then, we do نتوقع additional dramatic shifts in the السوق. Once the country re-opens to foreigners later this السنة, we نتوقع this Manhattan real estate recovery to go into overdrive!

Signs Lead to يستمرd ارتفاع السوق

The potential SALT cap removal, the dearth of جديد المبنى permits (since التطوير الجديد has been put on hقديم over the last السنة), and the full reopening of the city will bode well for Manhattan العقار الأسعار over the next 4-5 السنوات, as we saw after the Lehman crisis.

If you are thinking of شراءing, do it now to get the best الأسعار. المخزون is هبوط from a record 9,600 units for بيع in October 2020 to 7,000 units at the end of March 2021, which is still a bit مرتفع. But, if المبيعات يستمر at the same clip as the first الربع, we will be in a البائعون السوق by the beginning of summer. As the economy heats ارتفاع, so will أسعار الفائدة, making it more expensive to own the same home.

The Manhattan السوق's moving...now it's YOUR MOVE!

Manhattan السوق Off to a جيد Start in 2021 with زيادةd المبيعات النشاط

While the Manhattan real estate السوق is still struggling due to the effects of Covid, the fourth الربع 2020, and even the الشهر of January 2021, has seen a marked improvement fueled by:

• Positive vaccine جديدs and rollout that زيادةd شراءer confidence,
• Historically منخفض أسعار الفائدة,
• البائعون (and المطورون) offering خصومات (the average Covid خصم was 10%, much less for منخفضer السعرd units and much more for مرتفعer السعرd units)
• Pent ارتفاع الطلب from the 3 الشهر lockهبوط
• A جديد administrationترجمة: favorable to NYCترجمة: , and
• Potential repeal of the SALT cap, which depressed الأسعار in NYC by 11% (per Zandi)

العقود signed in Q4 were ارتفاع approx. 8% over the same الربع in 2019. January 2021 saw كوندومينيوم المبيعات ارتفاع a 50% and coop المبيعات ارتفاع 167% over the same الشهر a السنة earlier. All جيد جديدs! However, the current مرتفع المعروض of المخزون for بيع is a headwind for the السوق that will benefit المشترون in 2021.

The rental السوق has seen a pickارتفاع in the last few الأشهر as well. But, until companies ask their employees to return to their offices, the rental السوق will يبقى sluggish. We نتوقع a quick turnaround in leasing in a few الأشهر.

الخلاصات:

• It’s a المشترون السوق, but the window of فرصة for the ممتازest deals is closing,
• الأسعار fell but didn’t crash,
• الفاخر المشترون areترجمة: backin the السوق - they were absent for much of the السنة,
• المخزون is way هبوط from its dramatic peak in October, but still at a مرتفع level,
• It’s a ممتاز time to شراء a large شقة from a المطور - التطوير الجديدs saw some of the مرتفعest خصومات and concessions we have ever seen.

Manhattan السوق Bounces Back in Q4 2020

With headline جديدs talking about people fleeing big cities, it’s no wonder why my العملاء are surpارتفاعd to hear that العقود الموقعة النشاط in Manhattan has been robust over the last coارتفاعle of الأشهر. العقود الموقعة per الشهر in October and November 2020 averaged 855, with December 2020 on track to exceed December 2019 العقود الموقعة of 717. العقود الموقعة النشاط for the الربع thru mid-December has already surpassed the same الربع last السنة.

Confidence in the vaccine and the capitulation by بيعer’s to السعر خصومات have brought المشترون back into the السوق. Most of this العقد النشاط has been in the $3 Million-and-under segment, with the الفاخر sector still lackluster, but improving.

As you can see beمنخفض, the number of العقود signed above $5 million يستمرs to grow and this is the segment where we are seeing the largest خصومات.

المخزون Sharply هبوط From Peak, but Still مرتفع

النشاط and confidence has brought the المعروض of Manhattan العقارات for بيع هبوط from approximately 9,600 in October 2020 to 8,000 today.

While المخزون is ارتفاع by 20% compared to last السنة-end, when المخزون levels were at 6,600, we are happy to see that المخزون levels have fallen 17% from its peak. This very sharp turnaround in المخزون in October was likely a result of the stellar vaccine جديدs out of Pfizer and Moderns. We hope this doesn’t embقديمen البائعون too much.

Until the vaccine is fully rolled out, we نتوقع deals to be had in NYC. Although as time goes on and النشاط picks ارتفاع, we don’t نتوقع البائعون to خصم like they have been. It feels as though we are already passed the bottom of the السوق, but still in a period where a شراءer can get, heretofore, significant خصومات in NYC.

Where are all the خصومات now?

The average "Covid خصم" has been around 10%, although مرتفعer in the over $4 million segment. Urban Digs analyzed closed المبيعات in the 4th الربع 2020, and found that

• Under $2 million - an average of 5% خصم
• $2 to $4 million - an average of [[[P0002]]] خصم (10.4%)
• Over $4 million - an average of 13.5% خصم

Of course, these are averages and only account for الأسعار, not other giveaways that المطورون are offering to get deals done, such as closings cost credits, etc. It is important to note that the Manhattan real estate السوق already took a hit after the SALT ضريبة change occurred in late 2017, with the السوق bottoming in Q3 2019. Therefore, الأسعار had already taken a significant hit before Covid kicked in. The additional Covid خصم is just icing on the cake to المشترون.

التطوير الجديد

تعتمد الخصومات فعلًا على العديد من عوامل المبنى نفسه، مثل موقعه، وعدد الوحدات التي بيعت، وأي مشكلات محددة مع المطور أو الجهة الممولة، إلخ. كذلك، أي خط في المبنى تشتري؟ إذا كان المطور قد باع 50% من وحدات أفضل خط في المبنى و0% من خط آخر، فلا ينبغي أن تتوقع الخصم نفسه على كلا الخطين.

Currently, التطوير الجديد خصومات run the gamut and it really depends on the many factors affecting the المبنى itself. المطورون are behقديمen to their banks, who dictate minimum release الأسعار, so they are more prone to offer generous closing credits than outright خصومات. However, we have seen a combination of السعر خصومات and closing credits.

The average خصم is 10% in التطوير الجديد plus closing credits, although there are some developments that are offering that on top of already reduced الأسعار. It is not unheard of to see 20-30% off Schedule A pricing, which is the original السعر filed with the NY State Attorney General.

كان المطورون يغطيون جزءًا على الأقل من تكاليف إقفال الصفقة (closing costs) الخاصة بالمشتري، بما في ذلك بعض هذه التكاليف:

• Transfer Tax (ضريبة نقل الملكية) (حوالي 2%)
• Mansion Tax (ضريبة العقارات الفاخرة في NYC) (بمقياس متدرج يبدأ عند 1% ويصل إلى 4% إذا تجاوزت القيمة $25 million)
• Parking - can get it included depending ارتفاعon the unit
• ترجمة: Storage - can get it included
• رسوم الإدارة المشتركة (Common Charges) - might pay 1 السنة of رسوم الإدارة المشتركة (Common Charges).

بعض المطورين لا يفاوضون على الإطلاق، أو ربما يغطّون فقط Transfer Tax (ضريبة نقل الملكية) إذا كان لديهم شيء استثنائي للغاية في مبانيهم. فعلى سبيل المثال، لدى Park Loggia تراسات تطل على Central Park وتُتداول عند أسعار الطلب. أما The Benson فلا يضم سوى عدد قليل من الوحدات على Madison Avenue في UES، وهي أيضًا تُتداول عند أسعار الطلب. كما أن المباني الممولة ذاتيًا، وبالتالي غير الخاضعة لجهات أخرى، لا تفاوض بدورها. لكن هذه الحالات قليلة ومتباعدة.

Macro الخلاصات:

• This is probably the single ممتازest التطوير الجديد المشترون السوق NYC has ever seen in the past 20+ السنوات.
• ترجمة: We are not in a financial crisis; we are in a health crisis that likely has been solved.
• We are not in the same situation as the ممتاز Recession of 2008/2009, 2000 Tech Bubble, or 9/11 when there was fear and no money on the Street.
• Banks and white collar workers are flush with نقدًا and the DJIA is over 30,000 (not 6,000 like 2009).
• The fear is in the البائعون. المشترون have a short window to take advantage of this fear.
• For those sitting on the sidelines, remember, you need to make an offer to get a خصم. You need to play to win!

As we close out the السنة, we want to wish everyone a Happy Holiday. We pray that 2021 will be أفضل than 2020.

Manhattan Real Estate السوق

ترجمة: Bounces Back In October 2020

To understand in real time what is happening in the جديد York City real estate السوق, the first metric we look at is the number of العقود الموقعة during a particular الشهر. October العقود الموقعة significantly rebounded, topping out at 874 العقود الموقعة, ارتفاع by 30% from September [[[P0004]]] and ارتفاع by 4% from October 2019. This is clear evidence that the Manhattan real estate السوق has bounced back from the depths of the Covid crisis. In addition, العقود الموقعة in October were مرتفعer than any other الشهر during [[[P0004]]], even before Covid, which is quite evident in the chart beمنخفض. (2020 2020,)

Big ticket Manhattan المشترون are back

Most of the بيع النشاط was for العقارات under $3 million, however, several more العقود were signed in the >$25 million segment, hinting that big-ticket المشترون were coming back to the السوق. While we won’t know what الأسعار these traded at for a few weeks, we noted many, but not all, العقارات in the >$25 million segment traded at significant خصومات. While all البائعون are now negotiating, significant خصومات haven’t been the case in the <$3 million السوق.

Manhattan المخزون seems to have peaked

بلغ المخزون، أو المعروض، ذروته في منتصف أكتوبر عند مستوى قياسي بلغ 9,628 عقارًا للبيع، ويبدو الآن أنه يتراجع. وانخفض المعروض الجديد الشهري بنسبة 21% مقارنةً بـ September 2020 وبنسبة 1.2% مقارنةً بـ October 2019. وهذا يشير إلى أن نمو المخزون قد تباطأ، إلا أن عودة مستويات المخزون إلى وضعها الطبيعي ستستغرق بعض الوقت. ولهذا نرى أن الفرصة أمام المشترين لم تتلاشى بعد، رغم أننا تجاوزنا ذروة عدم اليقين التي سببها الفيروس. وخلال الأسبوعين الماضيين، انخفضت مستويات المخزون، وبحلول Friday, November 6th، أصبحت عند 9,255 عقارًا للبيع. وهذا رقم كبير جدًا من العقارات المعروضة للبيع، بالنظر إلى أن المخزون في مثل هذا الوقت من العام الماضي كان يقارب 7,700.

Home المبيعات in جديد York City suburbs are past the peak

While المبيعات يبقى at a مرتفع level in Westchester, Greenwich, Long Island, the Hamptons, المبيعات النشاط has come هبوط from its peak that hit the جديد York suburbs this past summer.

ترجمة: Now that the election is over - well, almost - and Pfizer announced aترجمة: vaccinethat is 90% effective, we believe the السوق will يستمر to pick ارتفاع in Manhattan.

The Best Time to شراء in NYC

in Over 10 السنوات

We are now three الأشهر into the reopening of the NYC real estate السوق. While there have beenترجمة: many challenges, the city is rebounding. We are starting to see signs of life in terms of زيادةd العقود الموقعة and المبيعات المعلقة. But, we still have a long way to go, which means there is a huge فرصة for smart money.

With restaurants, gyms, offices and museums reopening, NYC has taken on a much busier feel. جديد Yorkers are social distancing and wearing masks religiously, which has sارتفاعpressed the virus in the city.

Taking a step back and looking at the big picture of the real estate السوق from 30,000 feet, we know it is the right time to شراء in Manhattan. If you bought in 2001 or 2009, you already know thatترجمة: NYC will reboundقويer than ever. Therefore, I ask you take a moment and think about where you will be in 18 الأشهر. For sure, المشترون sitting on the sidelines will be regretting that they didn't make a move to شراء NYC sooner.

Here are our main takeaways for what's going on pn the السوق right now:

1. Covid has created a temporary فرصة to شراء in Manhattan at منخفض الأسعار.
2. The السوق pulse chart above takes into account المبيعات المعلقة and المخزون. It clearly shows that NYC has been in a المشترون السوق and is starting to recover.
3. Serious البائعون are listing their العقارات at reasonable الأسعار or are خصمing. Especially المطورون, who are offering السعر خصومات and concessions - unheard of just a coارتفاعle of السنوات ago...and will be unheard of in a few السنوات time.
4. While the average خصم has been 8%, we are seeing much مرتفعer خصومات (2x - 3x) on the most expensive العقارات.
5. نافذة الفرصة هي الآن... فمتى ستُغلق هذه النافذة؟ على الأرجح ستُغلق قبل Q2 2021, مع أفضل الصفقات في Q4 2020, تليها صفقات جيدة في Q1 2021. وبمجرد الإعلان عن لقاح فعّال وجاهز للتوزيع، سيكتسب البائعون قدرًا أكبر من الثقة - لذلك ننصح بالتحرك الآن! وعند الإغلاق، سنكون قد دخلنا 2021 وفي سوق جديد.
6. $7 trillion of government stimulus (14x more than in 2008) means that the risks are منخفض. This is not 2008. Banks are healthy and Fed sارتفاعport has never ever been ممتازer.
7. Record مرتفع stock السوق valuations (a by-product of the government stimulus) demonstالأسعار that the Federal Reserve is doing everything it can to stimulate the economy. It also demonstالأسعار that المستثمرون have confidence in the US economy, and that Covid will be under control and then history in short order.
8. NYC has been in sارتفاعpressing the virus since June, much more effective in its governing than the Federal Government. Residents have been doing their part by social distancing, avoiding large events, and wearing masks to protect their felمنخفض جديد Yorkers. While a lot of press lumps all of NYC into one lot, the most Covid infections have occurred in Queens and Brooklyn, not Manhattan. We haven't seen this mentioned anywhere in the جديدs.
9. The المبيعات السوق is no longer in freefall created by the lockهبوط. المبيعات المعلقة have turned a corner, growing substantially in September, as the السوق has passed the real bottom.

ترجمة: Courtesy charts fromترجمة: Urbardigs

ترجمة: Our Current Best Picks:

 

This reduced السعرd oversized 2 bedroom in theترجمة: East Villageoriginally sقديم as جديد construction for $400K more that the list السعر at $3.4 million in 2017. This is a 2015 boutique المبنى with amazing casement windows.ترجمة: Learn more.

ترجمة: 20 West 53 Street - Unit 22A
ترجمة: $4,750,000 / $2,748 per ft²
Reduced $600,000 / Sقديم for $5.7 million in 2017

ترجمة: 2 Beds / 2.5 Baths / 1,728 ft²
Maintenance: $3,792 / R.E. ضرائب $2,414

ترجمة: Live at theترجمة: Baccarat Hotel and Residences, one of the best hotels in جديد York City. The original owner paid $5.7 million for this شقة, so they are very motivated at a [[[P0001]]] million خصم. ($1)Learn more.

ترجمة: 540 West 28 West Street - Unit 3A
ترجمة: $885,000 / $1,560 per ft²

ترجمة: Studio / 1 Bath / 567 ft²
Maintenance: $606 / R.E. ضرائب $629

ترجمة: This studio at +Art inترجمة: West Chelseais السعرd really well at $885K. Finally, البائعون are listing شقق السعرd to بيع, not the aspirational الأسعار of a few السنوات ago. Close to Hudson Yards and the مرتفع Line!ترجمة: Learn more.

To finalize, if you would like to have a zoom call to discuss the السوق in more detail, just pick a time slot with me beمنخفض:

ترجمة: Schedule a Call

ترجمة: A Different NYC Summer

Around this time of السنة, I usually give an تحديث of the Q2 Manhattan السوق تقريرs. However, Q2 2020 is a completely different animal, as theManhattan real estate السوقwas shut هبوط for 12 of the 13 weeks that make ارتفاع the 2nd الربع.

For those who are not aware of what went on in NYC, on March 23, 2020, NYC went into lockهبوط mode and reemerged 90 days later on June 22, 2020. No physical showings were alمنخفضed during this time. المخزون dropped significantly during the crisis, as البائعون withdrew العقارات on the السوق or delayed listing. Now, however, العقارات are back on the السوق, with المخزون ارتفاع 8% from the same time last السنة.

The السوق over the last الشهر is sمنخفضly coming back, but not necessarily to normal levels just yet. Since reopening 5 weeks ago, we have seen:

• 84% of العقود الموقعة were under $3 million segment.
• A surpارتفاع urgency in some of these المشترون, as they know NYC will go back to some semblance of normalcy soon.

• Not much happening on the مرتفع end of the السوق, as many people are still in their summer homes and travel restrictions are still in place.
• الرهن العقاري أسعار الفائدة hitting record منخفضs (under 3%), as the Fed reduced the funds السعر to zero.
• Overall indicators suggest pricing 8-10% beمنخفض pre-Covid levels, but not at all السعر points.
• في التطوير الجديد، تتراوح تكاليف إقفال الصفقة (closing costs) الإجمالية وخفض الأسعار حول 8-12% بحسب المشروع.
• كانت أكبر الخصومات في السوق العليا، حيث أعاد بعض المطورين تسعير قوائمهم ويتحملون معظم تكاليف إقفال الصفقة (buyer’s closing costs)، مقدمين حوافز جذابة للغاية لإتمام الصفقة الآن.
• إعادة البيعs at $5 million and above receive no requests to show week after week. Therefore, serious البائعون of a larger العقار must be prepared to خصم at least 10%, and probably more, from pre-COVID pricing.
• خصومات تراجع as الأسعار descend, with few خصومات, if any, beمنخفض the $1 million mark.

ترجمة: Rentals:

• Although rental المخزون is مرتفع, the السوق is also seeing a steady stream of signed leases, especially at $10,000 per الشهر and under. Albeit at خصومات!

ترجمة: What’s next?

We are still in the early stages of a جديد reality, however, in terms of COVID,جديد York City is now a safer betترجمة: than 80% of the country!

If جديد York can maintain its safety protocols and keep viral infections منخفض, and there يستمرs to be very positive جديدs on vaccination trials and therapeutic drugs (like Remdesivir), history suggests NYC real estate will recover quickly.

Right now, we are past peak-uncertainty, which for NYC was the April / May timeframe, so maybe the best of the best deals are behind us. But, we believe that المشترون will have the next 4 -5 الأشهر to get ممتاز deals as well. Once there is a vaccine that is known to work, and odds are we will see one in the fall, جديد York City will be back أفضل than ever.

ترجمة: Questions?حدّد موعدًا للدردشة with me. 

ترجمة: Enjoy your summer!

ترجمة: Anthony

The Coronavirus' Effect on Manhattan Real Estate الأسعار

ترجمة: In the midst of this unprecendented global crisis, we have received several questions regarding the impact ofترجمة: COVID-19on Manhattan real estate السوق الأسعار. I hope everyone is staying safe and healthy during this tumultuous time. While the jury’s out on what happens next, here’s the latest information on the NYC real estate السوق.

In late March, جديد York City was put into a “medically-induced coma” so it could get ahead of the public health crisis. As a result, the جديد York real estate السوق has been totally frozen in time with minimal جديد العقد النشاط over the last two الأشهر. Physical showings of Manhattan كوندومينيومs, شقق and homes have been banned by جديد York State. And, جديد York City has been pretty much on lockهبوط since mid March. However, those deals that have been in the works before the pandemic hit have been able to close virtually and banks have يستمرd tofund الرهن العقاريs. 

It’s now mid-May and جديد York is one الشهر past the crisis peak and has awoken from its self-induced coma. Thanks to the leadership of جديد York Governorترجمة: Andrew Cuomo, جديد York has succesقدم مربعully flattened the curve and is managing its way out of this crisis. While we are not 100% out of the woods yet, a staged reopening is being planned over the next few weeks and الأشهر. ManyManhattan كوندومينيوم المبانيwill be lifting their moratorium on move-ins and move-outs as of May 15th and we نتوقع the moratorium on showings to be lifted sometime in June.

Looking in the rear عرض mirror to January and February 2020, العقد النشاط was ارتفاع 15% over the same periods last السنة, promising Spring 2020 to be a very solid بيعing season. Unfortunately, this is no longer the case! Currently, كوندومينيوم andcoop المخزون for بيعالعقدed dramatically, with only 5,000 units listed for بيع, 50% منخفضer than usual Spring بيعing season المخزون levels. Even the days on the السوق calculation, which counts the number of days a العقار has been listed for بيع, has been frozen by the listing portals, as that calculation became meaningless once the moratorium on العقار showings was implemented. So, what has been the effect on Manhattan real estate الأسعار?

ترجمة: While it is premature to draw inferences from the virus’ impact on theManhattan real estate الأسعار, former Federal Reserve Bank Chairman, Ben Bernanke, noted that this economic halt is more like a natural disaster than an economic depression. This is not a result of a breakهبوط in a financial system like in 2008 or the ممتاز Depression. Banks are قوي and well capitalized. Thankfully, the Fed moved quickly on monetary stimulus and the administration moved quickly on fiscal stimulus.

The silver lining in all of this is that NYC real estate الأسعار will significantly benefit from record منخفض أسعار الفائدة and record quantitative easing. Asset السعر inflation is the intended purpose of quantitative easing, although it may take some time for the فرصة to present itself. Regardless of the level of Manhattan real estate السعر inflation from this record QE stimulus, ultimately, NYC is still one of the top cities worldwide and people still need housing to either شراء or rent.

ترجمة: Ultimately, this is a health issue that can be solved, especially now that everyone is focused on the problem of Covid 19.

If you would like to have a zoom call to discuss the السوق in more detail, just pick a time slot with me beمنخفض:

ترجمة: Schedule a Call

6 Things You Should Know About the NYC Real Estate السوق this February

1. Significant زيادة in المبيعات النشاط over Last السنة

• المبيعات المعلقة ارتفاع 17% - Overall السوق
• المبيعات المعلقة ارتفاع 25% - $600K - [[[P0001]]] Million ($1)
• المبيعات المعلقة ارتفاع [[[P0002]]] - $1 million to [[[P0001]]] million (21% $2)

This demonstالأسعار that the المبيعات النشاط is ارتفاع significantly over last السنة, which was the bottom of the السوق in terms of النشاط. العقارات in the منخفضer السعر points under $2 million are seeing the biggest rebound. We are finally seeing that الطلب is outpacing المعروض, something we haven’t seen in a while in NYC. العقود signed inمانهاتنhave been ارتفاع double digits in November 2019, December 2019, January 2020, and February 2020. مؤشر رائد، a prolonged bump in العقد signed النشاط usually precedes السعر action. An unusually sمنخفض الشهر, January saw an impressive number of العقد signs, which is not common for the cقديمest الشهر of the السنة.

Anecdotally, we have noticed when calling other brokers to set appointments, at least 25% of the time these units already have Accepted Offers. Nothing like 12 الأشهر ago. The units that are going into العقد either have been on the السوق for a while and went through several السعر cuts, or جديد ones that were correctly السعرd from the get go. Also, in the last case, we are seeing packed open houses & a few bidding wars (a remnant of a different era).

2. الفاخر السوق النشاط قوةens on خصومات

خصومات across جديد York are getting deals closed and in January we saw a median listing خصم of 6.4% (a مرتفع السعر for جديد York) which shows البائعون have capitulated and deals are not getting done. While the مرتفعest زيادة in المبيعات النشاط has been for units beمنخفض $3 million, we have seen some improvement on the مرتفع end as well.

ترجمة: For instance, the Olshanتقريرترجمة: noted: "Twenty العقود were signed last week at $4 million and above, the third straight week of 20 or more المبيعات. The average السعر-drop from the original asking السعر was 18%, a total that was skewed by the top 2 المبيعات."

"The average days on السوق was 803, a total that was elevated because half of the العقارات were sقديم by المطورون and had been on the السوق for السنوات. That was the مرتفعest total this تقرير has ever recorded since we began tracking this particular stat in 2012."

Central Park المشترون:If you’ve been watching the Billionaire's Row and Central Park السوق, فرص are out there. Now may be the time to jump in before the السوق turns around. For example, for someone willing to live at Trump International Hotel and Tower in Columbus Circle, one can pick ارتفاع a ممتاز direct Central Park عرضترجمة: 3 bedroomfor $3,300 per قدم مربع (beمنخفض). DJT won’t be president forever and this المبنى will bounce back at some point. In addition, we have seen قوي خصومات atترجمة: One57and Time Warner المبنى as well, although the السعر floor for direct Central Park عرض in these and other ultra الفاخر المباني is hovering around $4,500 per قدم مربع.

Note that we keep hearing from المشترون in this segment that they hear more المخزون is coming on the السوق. While that may be the case for other الأحياء, there are no جديد المباني coming intoترجمة: Billionaire’s Row. Furthermore, the المخزون level beمنخفض $20 million with an unobstructed Central Park عرض is limited, as most of these المباني have an average بيع السعر of $30+ million.

3. التطوير الجديدs Vs إعادة البيعs

التطوير الجديدs السعرd 2-3 السنوات ago are lagging on the السوق and the reason for that is that there’s a disconnect between المطورون and their banks and المستثمرون.

What we are telling our المشترون:there are tons of فرص in the إعادة البيع السوق with العقارات السعرd anywhere between $1,100 per sq. ft. to $1,800 per sq. ft.

وبطبيعة الحال، هناك فرص في قطاع التطوير الجديد، وقد شهدنا خصومات تبلغ 15% في بعض المباني. غير أن كثيرًا من تلك المباني التي تشهد خصومات مزدوجة الرقم كانت قد أطلقت قبل سنوات. وعلى النقيض، رأينا مباني أُطلقت في 2019 بأسعار تعكس السوق الحالية، مع خصومات قليلة من أسعار طلب منخفضة، لكنها لا تزال تتحمل كثيرًا من تكاليف إقفال الصفقة (buyers closing costs).

The السوق is very السعر sensitive and dollar motivated. Is well known that a shadow المخزون exists. These are units that were taken off the السوق from unrealistic البائعون, or التطوير الجديد projects in fringe الأحياء. المشترون are very savvy these days and know how to spot a جيد value. If you purchased it in the last 5 السنوات and are trying to بيع it now, you are probably under water or at break even. Therefore, prepare for a bumpy ride. Gimmicks and tricks - there are many - won’t make an overالسعرd العقار بيع.

التطوير الجديدs العقارات for بيع

Latest شقق for بيع in Manhattan

4. Rents are ارتفاع

After some softness over the last coارتفاعle of السنوات, rental الأسعار are ارتفاع significantly على أساس سنوي. From theترجمة: Real Deal- As شقة hunters try to figure out what on earth is going on withترجمة: broker fees, they now have other جديدs to give them pause: Rents were 5 percent to 6 percent مرتفعer last الشهر than a السنة earlier in all three boroughs covered by the Douglas Elliman السوق تقرير.

5. الرهن العقاري الأسعار

الرهن العقاري أسعار الفائدة have plummeted since the same time last السنة and are resting near record منخفضs. The 30-السنة fixed الرهن العقاري السعر clocked in at 3.65%, while the stock السوق was close to a record مرتفع of over 26,900. In comparison, over the last 30 السنوات, the same الرهن العقاري السعر has averaged about 6.25%. In the last 10 السنوات, the only 2 times that the السعر has been منخفضer was in September 2016, with a منخفض of [[[P0002]]], and in November 2012, with a منخفض of 3.32%. (3.42%)

It is unlikely الأسعار can go much منخفضer, as we are already near historic منخفضs. We are, therefore recommending that our العملاء refinance now or finance their جديد العقار purchases to take advantage of this artificially منخفض الرهن العقاري السعر phenomenon before it's too late.

5. Coronavirus and مشترٍ أجنبي (غير مواطن أمريكي)s

While it is too soon to determine what the impact of the health scare may have on the real estate السوق, it should be noted that the جديد York real estate السوق has been anchored by domestic المشترون and foreigners have been all but absent. Mainland Chinese المشترون have been absent in the NYC السوق since 2016, Europeans have been absent as their currency has been منخفض for an extended number of السنوات. Latins and Brazilians have been largely missing as their currencies have depreciated.

Therefore, we don’t نتوقع this to negatively affect the NYC السوق in the near term. Should the dollar fall and the health scare abate, the السوق might take off. Finally, certain Asian countries may see limited investment فرص while authorities try to stem the spread leading to more investment in جديد York City, a risk free locale.

A Video تحديث from Urbandigs

A lot of العملاء have been asking what is going on in the NYC السوق, so I wanted to send you a quick تحديث via a video from Noah at Urbandigs.com. He has done a a ممتاز job of distilling what is going on in the Manhattan real estate السوق.

• Policy driven reset for the Manhattan السوق in 2019
• Federal TJCA ضريبة law change beginning in 2018 that limited SALT deductions to $10,000 made it more expensive for primary homeowners (not المستثمرون).
• Mansion Tax (ضريبة العقارات الفاخرة في NYC) اعتبارًا من July 1, 2019 إلى مقياس متدرج، ما أثّر في توقيت عمليات الشراء طوال 2019.
• يواصل السوق اتجاهه نحو الاستقرار: تراجعت وتيرة المبيعات، وتحسنت العقود الموقعة، وتباطأ نمو المعروض.
• المبيعات المعلقة ارتفاع 7%
• حدث قاع السوق فيترجمة: Q4 2018
• "الضربة حدثت بالفعل"، لذا قد يكون الوقت مناسبًا للشراء الآن.

For a while now, we have been telling our العملاء that the bottom of the السوق, in terms of النشاط, was around Nov & Dec of 2018. The numbers in November and December 2019 confirmed our عرض, as العقود signed زيادةd in the double digits compared to the same الشهر last السنة. Due to the weather in NYC, we have some distinct بيعing seasons, so we always need to look to the prior السنة الشهر or الربع to see how we are doing. [Toward the end of the Urban Digs video, he confirms what we have been telling our العملاء by comparing Pending المبيعات].

كانت أرقام 2019 مربكة لأنزيادة في Mansion Tax (ضريبة العقارات الفاخرة في NYC)تم الإعلان عنها في April لعمليات الشراء بعد June 30, 2019. وقد دفع ذلك عددًا كبيرًا من الصفقات عالية القيمة إلى Q2 كان سيُغلق طبيعيًا في Q3. لذا بدا Q3 2019 سيئًا للغاية بالمقارنة، لكن عند مقارنة Q3 وQ4 مجتمعين في 2019 بالفترة نفسها في 2018, انخفض حجم المبيعات بنسبة 4% فقط.

The bad press from a disastrous Q3 2019, however, resulted in البائعون (including المطورون) offering مرتفعer خصومات. This, in turn, has resulted in an زيادة in transactions, both in the إعادة البيع السوق and the التطوير الجديد السوق.

We firmly believe that the السوق correction in Manhattan is purely a policy driven reset in pricing caused by the $10K SALT cap. Robert Schiller estimated that NYC العقارات lost 11% in value because of this جديد ضريبة law. The press discusses a المعروض issue too, but we don't necessarily see excess المعروض in the most prime الأحياء. Of course, there is excess المعروض "C" الأحياء like Financial District and Lower East Side, but prime UWS, UES,ترجمة: Greenwich Village, Tribeca, there just isn't. That being said, المطورون and البائعون are offering some جيد خصومات to move the product knowing the people tend to real the headlines and not focus on the details.

العقد النشاط is a leading indicator of pricing. If we يستمر to see double digit زيادات in العقود signed, we نتوقع that pricing will ارتفاع and these خصومات will shrink.

Request a Selection of NYC العقارات

Bright signs for NYC كوندومينيومs in November

On average, المشترون received a خصم of 5.7% from the Last Asking السعر to Final بيعing السعر in November 2019. That خصم was the ممتازest in more than 8 السنوات! That's a pretty big spread for NYC and a ممتاز فرصة for المشترون.

Smart المشترون have taken notice of the خصومات available in the السوق and, as a result,العقد النشاط of كوندومينيومs rose by 15% versus November 2018. إشارة إيجابية بعد عام مضطرب لعقارات NYC (أي SALT caps، وتغييرات Mansion Tax (ضريبة العقارات الفاخرة في NYC)، وWeWork).

فرص at 35 Hudson Yards - ارتفاع to 30% خصم on a handful of Units

The Related Groارتفاع needs another 5-7 units for the Offering Plan ofترجمة: 35 Hudson Yardsto be effective (they need 15% sقديم before people can move in), so they are offering some steep خصومات on a few units for a short time.

With the خصم applied, the السعر لكل قدم مربع for these units, which start on the57th floor, is between $2,250 and $2,400 per قدم مربع!Quite inexpensive for what they are delivering. 35 Hudson Yards has Four Season-style finishes that are some of the best we have seen in Manhattan.

Foreigner friendly with hotel services (a la carte) from theفندق إيكوينوكس الرائدin the base of the المبنى, residents of 35 Hudson Yards will experience true five-star living.

If you are not interested, do you know anyone who might be? You don't see this every day in NYC, and especially with the Related Groارتفاع.

Let us know if you would like to learn more about this السعر incentive at Hudson Yards. We would be happy to share the images and video tours of each of these units.

ترجمة: The Park Loggia at 15 West 61 Street

كما توقعنا،ترجمة: 15 West 61 Streetيستمرs to be the best بيعing التطوير الجديد in Manhattan. In only 6 الأشهر Park Loggia sقديم over 65 units as off December 1st.

ولِماذا؟الموقع، الموقع، الموقع!

• At the corner of Broadway and West 61st Street, just one block north of Columbus Circle, this 32-story tower will bring 172 شقق to theترجمة: Upper West Side.
• This is the first reasonably السعرd التطوير الجديد كوندومينيوم المبنى built in the Columbus Circle area in over 15+ السنوات
• السعرd for today's السوق, not the peak of the السوق 3 السنوات ago.
• There is a constant lack of existing & التطوير الجديد options in this particular gem of a الحي in the UWS

Lantern House Launched المبيعات in West Chelsea

After 3 weeks on the السوق,ترجمة: The Lantern Houseis signing lots of العقود. No doubt the pricing and location have intrigued المشترون. Meatpacking District and theترجمة: West Villageare only 4 blocks south. The Hudson Yards is 10 blocks north, a straight shot ارتفاع Tenth Avenue or along the مرتفع Line. The area around the مرتفع Line is now fully built, so we won't see any more المباني here. It is what it is....and West Chelsea is now one of the most expensive الأحياء in Manhattan.

That's why it is refreshing to see such جيد entry level الأسعار at Lantern House. It is the only التطوير الجديد on the مرتفع Line that has 1 bedrooms under $2 million (with very few as منخفض as [[[P0001]]] million and 2 bedrooms under [[[P0002]]] million (with very few as منخفض as $2.4 million). Of course, if you want River عرضs, Manhattan real estate الأسعار are مرتفعer, but still not at crazy levels like its neighbor XI. ($1.45 $3)

جديد York City Tech Sector is on Fire

In the last few weeks, NYC has solidified its position as the second most important tech hubs in the world with massive leases signed in and around the Hudson Yards الحي. Tech companies are scrambling for prime Manhattan real estate to attract the city’s large and well-educated talent pool. The synergy with related industries makes NYC the right choice for these Tech giants.

اقرأ المزيد

ترجمة: Don't Believe Everything You Read

These sensational headlines بيع a lot of جديدspapers and clicks, but don’t serve their readers in telling them what really is going onManhattan real estate الأسعار. 

نعم، كانت حركة المبيعات والأسعار في Q3 منخفضة جدًا، لكن ذلك كان في الحقيقة لأن المشترين سارعوا إلى تقديم المبيعات إلى Q2 لتجنّب زيادة في Mansion Tax (ضريبة العقارات الفاخرة في NYC). ببساطة شديدة.

ما هذه الضريبة؟ في July 1, 2019, ارتفعت Mansion Tax (ضريبة العقارات الفاخرة في NYC)، وهي ضريبة NY يدفعها المشتري عند الإغلاق، من 1% ثابتة للعقارات التي تبلغ قيمتها $1 million فأكثر إلى نسبة متدرجة تتراوح بين 1.25% و3.9% للعقارات الأعلى سعرًا.

While not booming, the Manhattan real estate السوق isn’t quite as bad as described in these headlines.

• مؤشر رائد،العقود Signed, تراجعd only 2% in the الربع compared to last السنة. بعيد كل البعد عن مجزرة!
• The most prime الأحياء don’t have excess التطوير الجديد, although there has been overالمبنى in some segments - the sارتفاعer and فائق الفخامة segments. As we have noted before, there has been overالمبنى in fringe الأحياء like theترجمة: Financial Districtترجمة: , Lower East Side, and the Far Upper West Side, for example.اقرأ المزيد عن ذلك.

بالإضافة إلىRecord منخفض الرهن العقاري الأسعارand Trump's détente with China (as of today), as the NY Post notes, there is “reason to cheer” if you are a شراءer.

Knowing that these headlines will stick around in المشترون minds for the الربع or longer, some المطورون of جديدly released projects havesignificantly dropped الأسعار just in the past week. Notably, two of our favorite UES التطوير الجديدs (Hayworth and Beckford)ترجمة: dropped pricing 8-11%on in the last few days. See more info about them beمنخفض:

It is clear that the Manhattan real estate السوق has gone through a reset. This was brought on by the 2018 ضريبة law which made owning a primary home in جديد York more expensive. Now that the السوق has reset, we feel that there are فرص for long term المستثمرون.

أسعار الفائدة are artificially منخفض and it appears that positive steps are being made toward Trump's trade war, as we had predicted. It is impossible to time the bottom of a السوق, but we think we are past the worst of it.

التطوير الجديدs' السعر Cuts

ترجمة: Theترجمة: Beckford House and Tower, just received a significant السعر adjustment 2+ weeks after its soft launch. Thanks to the media, I’m sure!

ترجمة: As we noted in ourSeptember 21st جديدsletter, we consider this project one of the best التطوير الجديدs in جديد York. Now, with a خصم of8-11% from their initial launch الأسعار, it’s even a beترجمة: tter deal now. The quality of the المبنى and its finishes are comparable to 135 East 79 Street & 20 East End Avenue. And, we نتوقع similar rental الأسعار for Beckford,over $100 per قدم مربع per السنةترجمة: when delivered (in Spring 2020 for Beckford House and in Spring 2021 for Beckford Tower).

Request الأسعار & Floorplans for The Beckford House & Tower

ترجمة: The Hayworth, another UES project that launched during the Summer, just reduced their الأسعار today. For example, شقة 8A just got a السعر cut of 11%. With this reduction, 8A is السعرd at $2,101 per sq.ft., an outstanding السعر for this caliber of product. The Hayworth is a boutique المبنى with only 61 units is situated at the corner of Lexington and 86 Street and across The Lucida. It will be one of the best كوندومينيوم المباني in the UES when completed in Spring 2020.

Request الأسعار & Floorplans for The Hayworth

إعادة البيع السوق

ترجمة: Manyبيعer'shave finally come to terms with the السوق resulting in significant السعر cuts. In some cases, we are seeing a return to 2014/2015 pricing for إعادة البيع units. Not in all cases, but certainly for some. Those العقارات that are not السعرd to the current السوق, however, will languish on the السوق. Those that are well السعرd have been بيعing.

With a قوةening rental السوق and declining real estate الأسعار, yields are quite جيد, considering yields worldwide are compressing because of negative الأسعار.

التطوير الجديدs العقارات for بيع

Latest شقق for بيع in Manhattan

Manhattan كوندومينيوم السوق تحديث

Those trying to time the absolute bottom of any السوق (real estate or stock السوق) will find it next to impossible, but sometimes there are clear signs...

A significant ارتفاعtick in المبيعات النشاط in April suggests the bottom may haveترجمة: passed!

ترجمة: What's Really Happening

April العقود الموقعة in Manhattanrose by double digits compared to last March (ارتفاع 15.6%) and same time last السنة (ارتفاع 11.6%), according to Urban Digs. العقود الموقعة are a leading indicator in any real estate السوق. A significant زيادة in the number of العقود الموقعة usually precedes positive السعر movement. We will be keeping an eye on this number as we move forward in 2019, but these green shoots are avery جيد sign that the السوق is يتجه نحو الاستقرار and even starting to turn around. Very welcome جديدs after a disappointing first الربع.

لقد أخرج قانون الضرائب الجديد الذي أُقر في December 2017 كثيرًا من الزخم من سوق Manhattan خلال العام الماضي. لكن بعد أن أصبح الناس يفهمون آثاره بشكل أفضل عقب تقديم ضرائب 2018 (المستحقة في April 15th)، تلاشى بعض ذلك الغموض. وإذا تذكرتم، فقد حدّ القانون عند $10K مقدار الضرائب الدخلية على مستوى الولاية والضرائب المحلية (أي الضريبة العقارية السنوية (Property Tax)) (ترجمة: SALT) that a primary homeowner could deduct from their federal ضريبة return, a miniscule amount for a جديد York primary homeowner. This was a total surpارتفاع to most جديد Yorkers and caught many off guard. But,while the SALT cap did suck the life out of the السوق due to uncertainty, it had less of an impact on the مرتفع end of the السوق because of offsets in the form of منخفضer ضريبة الأسعار, a مرتفعer AMT threshقديم and other loopholes.

With the ضريبة change behind us and a tick ارتفاع in المبيعات النشاط, we think2019 is the right time to شراء a كوندومينيوم in Manhattan. Consider the folمنخفضing on this تقرير from Douglas Elliman:

• Sمنخفض المبيعات in 2018 have led البائعون to adjust their نتوقعations to a منخفضer level. Numbers provided by Jonathan Miller Samuel.
• المشترون now have more options to choose from, as المخزون has built ارتفاع from sمنخفضer المبيعات volume. This also puts هبوطward pressure on الأسعار.
• الرهن العقاري أسعار الفائدةhave تراجعd 40 basis points (almost ½ point) since last May, making the التمويل environment very appealing.
• GDP of [[[P0001]]] in Q1 2019 and killer job growth (منخفضest unemployment الأسعار since 1969), all while inflation data is muted, keeping أسعار الفائدة at reasonable levels to help fuel the recovery. (3.2%)

With منخفضer الأسعار, adjusted بيعer نتوقعations, recently cut الأسعار, certainty about the ضريبة change’s impact and latest sign of a booming NYC and US economy, شراءing now is very attrالنشط.We نتوقع to look back on Q1 2019 as the absolute bottom of this السوق cycle.

ترجمة: Featured blog:

"9 Tips for شراءing الفاخر Real Estate in جديد York"

It's a المشترون' السوق in جديد York City

Today, we feel that the current Manhattan housing السوق is a once-in-a-decade or possibly a once-in-a-generation investment فرصة. In Q4 2018, Manhattan evolved into a pronounced المشترون السوق, as المخزون rose, المبيعات sمنخفضed and median asking الأسعار تراجعd. There is significant جديد المعروض coming online this السنة at a time when there are still unsقديم التطوير الجديد units from the past 2 السنوات. The السوق has been weak and البائعون are مرتفعly negotiable. At the same time, جديد York City's economy is robust. We believe the combination of these factors make it a ممتاز time to make a long-term investment - setting ارتفاع 2019 as the perfect time to شراء.

This is a very rare occasion. Over the last 20+ السنوات, Manhattan has been in a المشترون السوق only two other times: in 2001 right after 9/11, which lasted just six الأشهر, and in 2008-2009 afterترجمة: Lehman Brotherscollapsed triggering a credit crisis that lasted one السنة. The current المشترون’ السوق began in late 2015, but only in the فائق الفخامة segment, a small sliver of the السوق. Since then, however, the المشترون’ السوق has widened. First to the الفاخر segment in 2016 and 2017 and now to all المخزون segments, especially in 2018 after the جديد unfavorable federal ضريبة law was enacted (discussed at length in our previous تحديثs) which pushed many المشترون to the sidelines.

As you can see from the chart beمنخفض fromترجمة: Compound, if you شراء Manhattan real estate at the right time (i.e. during a المشترون السوق), the rewards can be plentiful:

As for details on how the 4th الربع of 2018 performed:

• Q4 2018 العقود signed were هبوط 3% over the same الربع last السنة, the منخفضest level since 2012. The 3% تراجع, however, is attributed to a huge 19% تراجع in العقود signed for كوندومينيومs, offset by a large زيادة in العقود signed for coops.
• العقد الأسعار were هبوط across all المخزون types. العقد النشاط is more representative of the health of the current السوق than closed المبيعات data, which often include legacy العقود entered at a time not necessarily representative of today’s السوق conditions.
• In terms of closed المبيعات, the median كوندومينيوم المبيعات السعر has fallen by 8.1% to $1.48 million, the منخفضest it’s been in several السنوات.
• The number of كوندومينيومs sقديم in the fourth الربع fell from the third الربع by 22.7% and by 13.0% على أساس سنوي, which means that المبيعات volumes are sمنخفضer than they’ve been in a very long time.
• The median المبيعات السعر لكل قدم مربع rose, but the زيادة was skewed by very large dollar closings at two فائق الفخامة المباني that started closings,ترجمة: 520 Park Avenueترجمة: andترجمة: 220 Central Park South.

ترجمة: Well, what does all of this mean?

• There is a window of فرصة to شراء now.
• المشترون have more spending power than before.
• المشترون also have many more options from which to choose.
• المطورون have gotten more creative by offering جديد incentives, while individual البائعون are significantly negotiating on السعر.
• يمتلك المشترون الآن قوة تفاوضية في طلب أمور كانت قبل عامين بمثابة صفقة مرفوضة بالنسبة إلى البائع، مثل السماح بشروط التمويل العقاري أو تحمل Transfer Tax (ضريبة نقل الملكية) ورسوم الإدارة المشتركة (Common Charges).

Keep in mind that this rare occasion is happening at the same time the NYC economy is booming and in a position to keep growing and growing in السنوات to come (i.eترجمة: Google West Soho expansionترجمة: , Hudson Yards opening in March 2019, etc.).

While deals are happening, a lot of potential المشترون are sitting on the sidelines in a wait-and-see mode. Our caution to them is that it is impossible to time the bottom of any السوق. Often, a شراءer willwait too long, miss the dip and lose their leverage. أسعار الفائدة have come off their 2018 مرتفعs, making it a جيد time to enter or renter the السوق, before they start ascending again.

Why Now is The Right Time to Invest in The Manhattan كوندومينيوم السوق

ترجمة: Warren Buffett said it best,"السعر is what you pay,ترجمة: valueترجمة: is what you get . . . It is wise to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful."

Some recent تقريرs on real estate in جديد York City have made some people fearful. When we look at the broad picture and the overall statistics in those تقريرs it is fairly clear as to why those people are fearful, however, one must dig deeper to understand the whole story.

Manhattan كوندومينيوم المشترون يبقىed cautious in the 3rd الربع 2018 due to concerns over theجديد ضريبة law (FN1)implemented at the end of 2017, despite a very قوي economy, record breaking stock السوق, and still relatively منخفض, although rapidly increasing, أسعار الفائدة.

ترجمة: Manhattan real estateis seldom in a المشترون السوق, so if you are interested in a safe long term investment, now may be the time to شراء. This is not going to be a prolonged event or repeated any time soon. In fact, during Q3, the مرتفع end of the السوق (>$5M), which began a correction in 2016, started to bounce back somewhat, as discussed beمنخفض.

ترجمة: Headlines Don’t Tell the Whole Story

While headlines regarding the الربع have been concerning, they don't tell the entire story. We need to look at what is happening today in the السوق and not 1, 2 or 8 الأرباع ago, which is what the الربعly السوق تقريرs usually focus on. If you look at the number of العقود Signed in the الربع, a leading indicator, this الربع was roughly the same as the same الربع last السنة.

• العقود الموقعة in Manhattan showed a slight [[[P0001]]] decrease over the number signed in Q3 2017. (1%)

• The best performing segment in terms of العقود signed was $5M - $10M (which saw a 30% زيادة in العقود signed primarily driven by المبيعات at two التطوير الجديد, The Belnord and 100 E 53rd).

• The second best segment was for homes السعر at $10M+, which saw a 10% زيادة in النشاط.

• While we won’t know what units are under العقد for, الأسعار these units will be ultimately traded at until they close and are recorded, which could be many الأشهر from now, the bounce back in النشاط from a prolonged slumber is reassuring. For sure, خصمing played a role in these المبيعات.

Closed المبيعات in the 3rd الربع 2018, however, show a different picture. When looking at closed المبيعات, you are assessing only units that closed in the الربع, regardless of when the العقد was signed. In the case of التطوير الجديد, that could have been 3 السنوات ago in some instances. Therefore, closed المبيعات info can be somewhat dated, albeit still جيد information to capture trends.

• Overall closings in Manhattan fell 8% (although ارتفاع [[[P0002]]] over Q2 2018) (5%)
• التطوير الجديد closed المبيعات tanked, with a drop of 37%. This led some المطورون to significantly خصم التطوير الجديد الأسعار on those المباني that were overالسعرd to begin with or outside of the most prime in الطلب الأحياء. Core Groارتفاع تقريرed the average التطوير الجديد خصم at a near record 14% in the الربع, ارتفاع from 8% last السنة.
• المشترون driven away from the lofty الأسعار of التطوير الجديد turned to إعادة البيع كوندومينيومs, which زيادةd 2%, while coop closed المبيعات تراجعd 8%.
• المخزون in the الربع grew significantly, at 13%, which will result in longer future السوقing times.
• إعادة البيع coop المخزون rose the most at 26%, while إعادة البيع كوندومينيوم المخزون rose 4%. التطوير الجديد المخزون was هبوط 5%.
• The average السعر of a كوندومينيوم was $2.66 million, هبوط 2.3%. The average السعر لكل قدم مربع for إعادة البيع كوندومينيوم units تراجعd 5%.
• The average السعر of a التطوير الجديد was $4.33 million while التطوير الجديد السعر لكل قدم مربع rose 4%.
• The average السعر لكل قدم مربع for the الفاخر السوق (top 10% of المبيعات) rose 2.7% and the الفاخر entry threshقديم fell to $3.85 million.

ترجمة: Photo credit: 111 Murray

ترجمة: The Macro Enviroment

• ترجمة: The Dow andترجمة: NASDAQare riding مرتفع. Profit-taking may well make الأسعار fall but, regardless of talks about international trade wars, stocks are مرتفع, and profit-taking looks very attrالنشط.
• Unemployment السعر is هبوط, and, statistically, the USA has full employment. Full employment encourages spending. Spending by consumers geneالأسعار more profits for stockhقديمers.
• Deregulation is in full swing, so business development is very likely to يستمر on its ارتفاعward drive.
• There is no credit bubble, but the Chairman of the Fed says أسعار الفائدة will go ارتفاع incrementally through 2019. مرتفعer أسعار الفائدة encourage المشترون to take out fixed-السعر الرهن العقاريs sooner rather than later.
• مرتفع growth الأسعار across the economy tend to make people wonder how long it will all last, so many hقديم back on major purchases. Economists, today, say there is no credit bubble on the horizon, so the consumer-driven economy looks sound.

Why We Are Confident in The NYC السوق

To sum it ارتفاع, we feel that this is a pretty جيد المشترون’ السوق to be in, especially compared to 2008.

• With البائعون finally negotiating, المشترون now have power
• Interest are relatively منخفض historically
• ترجمة: The economy is booming
• ترجمة: Deregulation is in full swing
• منخفضest unemployment in 69 السنوات
• جديد York City has the مرتفعest employment level in 50 السنوات andترجمة: NYCترجمة: Industry is now well diversified outside of just finance
• No Credit Bubble like 2008; Banks have tough requirements and do their العناية الواجبة (Due Diligence)
• Company profits have never been مرتفعer, especially with the جديد منخفض السعر of 21%
• Overالمبنى in urban السوقs is generally absorbed quickly

Drilling هبوط into the detailed numbers suggests جديد York City real estate السوق is قوي. Most people will read the broad تقريرs, but the astute شراءer will listen to real estate specialists. To paraphrase Warren Buffett said when others are fearful this may just be the right time to شراء in NYC.

The جديد US ضريبة Law Effect in Manhattan

ترجمة: Theجديد US ضريبة law, implemented on January 1, 2018, has created a lot of noise in the media. If you look at the fine print, however, the law will be a boon to corporations and real estate المستثمرون, including مشترٍ أجنبي (غير مواطن أمريكي)s. For current homeowners, especially in Manhattan, it's a bit more complicated.

In Manhattan, uncertainty around the ultimate effects of the جديد law, which limits state and local ضريبة deductions and reduces the amount of deductible interest on primary homes from $1 million to [[[P0001]]], created a jittery السوق and is reflected in the latest Q1 السوق تقريرs, which show Q1 النشاط هبوط by [[[P0002]]], according to Corcoran. The weakness in volume was found across السعر points, but, especially, was felt in the مرتفع end. Q2 المبيعات النشاط appears to be recovering. ($750K 10%)

To mitigate the ضريبة law’s negative effects, Governor Cuomo has made significant efforts to change state ضريبة rules. We نتوقع some uncertainty to يبقى in the السوق, which will put المشترون in the driver's seat for the next few الأشهر, at least until the economy starts to heat ارتفاع, an anticipated byproduct of ضريبة reform.

It is worth noting, however, that many الفاخر المباني in prime هبوطtown الأحياء like NoHo,ترجمة: SoHoترجمة: , Tribeca, West Village andترجمة: Flatiron, and the core of the Upper West Side, for example, are faring quite well. Well-السعرd كوندومينيومs are still moving fast, المبيعات المعلقة are ارتفاع over prior الشهر and السنة, and we are still seeing 20% of deals being made above asking السعر, not an insignificant number.

Manhattan House الأسعار تقرير

The US Economy and جديد York City, in particular, have been experiencing قوي economic performance in early 2018.

• جديد York City employment rose to an all-time مرتفع of 4.426 million people. NYC gained 702K jobs since 2009, an 18.9% زيادة, which is the مرتفعest زيادة since WWII and much مرتفعer than the nation, which added 11.5% جديد jobs. Technology, media, healthcare and tourism-related businesses were the industries that drove the most hiring over the last 10 السنوات.
• Dow Jones average has زيادةd 25% since one السنة ago, clocking in at 25,000. With almost all companies تقريرed for 2017, 75% of companies تقريرed that their fourth-الربع profits beat نتوقعations.
• February jobs were ارتفاع 313,000, exceeding نتوقعations by 100,000, while the unemployment السعر was a منخفض 4.1%.

نتوقع أن نرى المزيد من الآثار الإيجابية للإصلاح الضريبي الجديد لاحقًا هذا العام، مع احتمال أن يؤدي الإصلاح الضريبي في المرحلة الثانية إلى خفض ضريبة أرباح رأس المال (Capital Gains Tax). ترقبوا...

Manhattan السوق تقرير

There يستمرs to be قوة and النشاط in the core Manhattan السوق for كوندومينيومs. Record مرتفع equity السوقs, inexpensive and readily available التمويل, and clarity have helped propel the السوق. One السنة ago, there was ممتاز uncertainty regarding the US Election, أسعار الفائدة were prematurely spiking and everyone was shocked by Brexit. Select statistics for Q3 2017:

• كوندومينيوم العقود signed between $1M - $3M زيادةd 11% على أساس سنوي
• كوندومينيوم العقود signed between $3M - $5M زيادةd 8% على أساس سنوي.
• The فائق الفخامة كوندومينيومminium السوق ($10M+), however, يستمرs to face headwinds, although this الربع saw 12% مرتفعer number of العقود signed >$10M.
• إعادة البيعs - $1,774 average السعر pقدم مربع
• التطوير الجديدs - $2,320 average السعر pقدم مربع
• الفاخر - $2,780 السعر pقدم مربع, with an entry level السعر for الفاخر (top 10% of المبيعات) at $4.1 million.

How Are إعادة البيع المخزون Levels in the Manhattan Real Estate السوق?

"المشترون — A السعر correction already occurred, and over the last السنة or so the broader السوق has shown signs of stabilization and normalization. If you have a real need to شراء and you find the right العقار, utilize this sمنخفض period for any leverage you can get in negotiations — you never know when a بيعer has had enough, and is ready to hit that bid."

ترجمة: Read the full article at:ترجمة: medium.com

We agree with Urban Digs. The Manhattan RE السوق has already corrected, especially in the الفاخر segment, and المشترون have more leverage now than they did than from 2014 - 2016. We نتوقع this leverage to يستمر in 2018, as confusion aboutجديد ضريبة changestakes place. We have found, however, thatإعادة البيعالمخزون المعروض is still منخفض.

We have looked at إعادة البيع المخزون المعروض levels in four prime الأحياء that are popular with our primary home المشترون and المستثمرون: Tribeca, Chelsea, ارتفاعper East Side and Upper West Side. We looked at the $5 - [[[P0001]]] million segment, [[[P0002]]] - $5 million segment and $1 - [[[P0002]]] million segment. ($10 $2 $2)

Of all Manhattan real estate for بيع in the $5 - 10 million segment, there were only 17 إعادة البيع units for بيع in Tribeca, 8 إعادة البيع units for بيع inترجمة: Chelsea, 5 إعادة البيع units for بيع in the ارتفاعper East Side, and 4 إعادة البيع units for بيع in the Upper West Side. That's a total of 34 إعادة البيع units in these four الأحياء, which cover a lot of the island of Manhattan.

Shifting هبوط السوق, of allترجمة: Manhattan real estatefor بيع in the $2 - 5 million segment, there were only 22 إعادة البيع units for بيع in Tribeca, 15 in Chelsea, 21 units in ارتفاعper East Side, and 32 units in the Upper West Side (including the Riverside). That's only 90 units available in the $2 - $5 million segment across these four الأحياء.

In the entry level السوق, of all Manhattan Real Estate for بيع between $1 - [[[P000[[[P0002]]]]]] million, there were only 2 إعادة البيع units available in Tribeca, [[[P0002]]][[[P0002]]] إعادة البيع units in Chelsea, [[[P0002]]]5 إعادة البيع units in the ارتفاعper East Side and [[[P0002]]]9 إعادة البيع units in the ($2 11 15 19)ترجمة: Upper West Side. That's a total of [[[P0002]]] إعادة البيع units available for بيع in the $1 - [[[P0001]]] million segment across these four large الأحياء. (47 $2)

As Urban Digs noted, it is true that بيعer's are more receptive to negotiations these days, especially compared to 2014 - 2015, but the المعروض of جيد إعادة البيع كوندومينيومs is still relatively منخفض. And, التطوير الجديد is بيعing at a مرتفع premium. When we start narrowing هبوط to the best Manhattan real estate available for بيع, by particular المبنى, exposure, those that are not overالسعرd, the number of جيد options drops significantly. Therefore, if you are a شراءer that has housing needs or looking for investment, keep this short المعروض story in mind.

https://belamorena.com.br

ارتفاعper East Side

ترجمة: Upper West Side

ترجمة: Chelsea

ترجمة: Tribeca

ترجمة: Charts courtesy ofترجمة: UrbanDigs

Manhattan السوق تحديث Q4|2017

The fourth الربع of the 2017real estate السوق in Manhattanis one best described as stable, with the last three out of four الأرباع showing an زيادة in closed المبيعات النشاط. 2017 was a much أفضل السنة than 2016, although there has been a marked drop in the number of العقود الموقعة in the الربع على أساس سنوي that can be primarily attributed to non-السوق factors such as ضريبة reform and political climate.

عند النظر عن قرب إلى أنواع العقارات، نرى تباينًا كبيرًا. فقد كان قطاع إعادة البيع في Co-op (مالكية تعاونية للأسهم) هو الأكثر نشاطًا مع Q3 متتالٍ من نمو المبيعات. أما العقود الموقعة لوحدات كوندومينيوم (Condo) المعاد بيعها فقد تضررت بسبب استمرار ارتفاع الأسعار، كما واجهت مبيعات التطوير الجديد المغلقة انخفاضًا بنسبة 12% بسبب الدورة الحالية وتوقيت المطورين. ومع أخذ كل ذلك في الاعتبار، ومع استمرار عدم اليقين بشأنجديد ضريبة reform, we can surmise that Manhattan real estate is sمنخفضly becoming a شراءer’s السوق.

إعادة البيع كوندومينيومs

• The average السعر لكل قدم مربع was $1,759, flat على أساس سنوي.
• The number of المبيعات in this السوق fell 3% to 929, the منخفضest since Q4 of 2011.
• Days on the السوق was 116 days, flat على أساس سنوي.
• The المخزون تراجعd 4% to 2,485 units for بيع.

Uncertainty regarding ضريبة reform effects played out in Q4 in the إعادة البيع كوندومينيوم sector, causing a تراجع in المبيعات النشاط and flat الأسعار. For the second consecutive السنة, the السوق underperformed and saw the fewest المبيعات since 2011. المخزون of available units fell correspondingly with a 3% decrease across the board. Many are pointing to a disconnect in pricing, as النشط المخزون was saddled with a double-digit premium per قدم مربع when compared to Q4 closed المبيعات.

إعادة بيع Co-op (مالكية تعاونية للأسهم)

• The average السعر of aCo-op (مالكية تعاونية للأسهم)ترجمة: was $1.26 million
• The average السعر لكل قدم مربع was $1,167, representing a [[[P0001]]] زيادة over last السنة (1%)
• The number of المبيعات in this السوق rose by 4%, ارتفاع to 1,733 العقارات.
• Days on the السوق was 88 days, a 5% decrease over last السنة.
• المخزون rose by 15% to 2,824 units for بيع.

أنهت إعادة بيع Co-op (مالكية تعاونية للأسهم) عام 2017 باعتبارها المنتج العقاري الأكثر مبيعًا في ذلك العام، وواصلت التفوق على البدائل الأخرى عبر زيادة المبيعات للربع الثالث على التوالي. إضافة إلى ذلك، أدّى الطلب المرتفع على إعادة بيع Co-op (co-op resales) إلى انخفاض متوسط مدة بقاء العقار في السوق بنسبة 5%. وبذلك، استجاب السوق بزيادة المخزون المتاح بنسبة 15%.

التطوير الجديد

• The average السعر of a التطوير الجديد كوندومينيوم was $3.92 million.
• The average السعر لكل قدم مربع was $2,253, which dropped 17% over last السنة, as the number of sارتفاعer-الفاخر and فائق الفخامة closings تراجعd.
• The number of المبيعات in this السوق fell 12%, from 527 to 463.
• The المخزون grew by 30%, with 1,074 units now listed for بيع.

As one might نتوقع, the التطوير الجديد كوندومينيوم السوق numbers tend to زيادة or decreased based on the progress of ongoing المبنى construction. No جديد المباني commenced closings in the 4^{ترجمة: th}الربع and a number of large developments, such as 125 Greenwich andترجمة: 91 Leonardlaunched المبيعات, causing المخزون to soar by 30%.

الفاخر

• The average السعر of aالفاخر NYC شقةترجمة: was $7.24 million in Q4.
• The average السعر لكل قدم مربع تراجعd 12% to $2,625.
• The الفاخر threshقديم was $3.882M.

The الفاخر segment is determined by the top 10% of closed المبيعات based on السعر. The entry-level السعر, or “threshقديم”, fell by roughly $500,000, ending at $3.882 million. Additionally, the average السعر dropped by 10%, and السعر لكل قدم مربع fell by 12%. These drops can be attributed to a shift in closings in the الربع from فائق الفخامة and sارتفاعer-الفاخر closings, such asترجمة: 432 Park,ترجمة: Greenwich Lane, andترجمة: 56 Leonard, at the end of 2016, to more modest الفاخر المباني in outlying locations, such as One West End and 252 East 57^{ترجمة: th}St. However, we have seen a more competitive السوق with an زيادةd المخزون, leaving البائعون with little other option than to drop the الأسعار to satiقدم مربعy customer الطلب. This represents a real potential for المستثمرون in the الفاخر segment, as these الفاخر units are منخفض and ready to move.

In conclusion, the Manhattan السوق يبقىs stable and 2017 was healthier than 2016. That being said, the السوق يستمرs to show trends skewing toward the side of the customer, or in other words, becoming a “شراءer’s السوق”. An زيادة in available المخزون, التطوير الجديد projects, and a منخفضering of the الفاخر threshقديم have created a السوق in which owners and المطورون are inclined to خصم الأسعار to keep ارتفاع with dwindling المبيعات. Because ofuncertainty with the ضريبة reform, 2018 will be a جيد السنة for the شراءer, and not so جيد for the بيعer. For those standing on the sidelines, it might be a جيد time to enter the السوق, before the positive effects of Trump’s ضريبة reform kick in.

ترجمة: Manhattan Quick Searches

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ترجمة: How will President Trump affect US Real Estate?

ترجمة: Never before has America had aجديد York Cityالعقار المطور and real estate broker (yes, he has a NYC broker’s license) sitting in the White House. While many of us may not agree with Trump’s behavior and policy positions, one thing for sure is that Trump will be pro-العقار and pro-real estate.

ترجمة: While some postulated that aترجمة: Trump presidencywould be a black swan event, rather than plunging, both the US dollar and stock السوق rose today!

If you are wondering how the policies of President Trump affect US Real Estate, here are insights as to how Trump will likely opeالسعر once in office.

ترجمة: Will he use real estate to kickstart the economy?

Trump is a العقار المطور and real estate broker. He has used real estate himself as an investment all his life and has said that he’s interested in boosting homeownership. Given that his family business is real estate, either through his own company, theترجمة: Trump Organization, or his son-in-law’s, Kushner العقارات, we نتوقع Trump to يستمر his love affair with العقار.

What will happen to الرهن العقاري الأسعار?

الأسعار are poised to يبقى منخفض for a while. “الرهن العقاري الأسعار are falling because المستثمرون are seeing safe yields in U.S. الرهن العقاري backed securities, reflecting their confidence in the relative safety of the U.S. housing السوق,” wrote Trulia chief economistترجمة: Ralph McLaughlinin a statement the day after the election. “Furthermore, the Fed is likely to delay a December السعر hike because of global economic turmoil. Both effects mean short term win for borrowers, and we’ll likely see an زيادة in الرهن العقاري reالتمويل if الأسعار يستمر to plummet.”

Will he منخفضer ضرائب for real estate المستثمرون?

Republicans retained control over the House and Senate. As a result, the republicans have unfettered control over the future of ضريبة policy, meaning there will someترجمة: bigترجمة: changes that will affectضرائب for real estate المستثمرونترجمة: . Trump has proposed to:

• معدلات ضرائب أقل، مع ضريبة أرباح رأس المال (Capital Gains Tax) بمعدل أقصى 20%.
• Eliminate the estate or death ضريبة
• Reduce corpoالسعر ضرائب from 35% to 15%

And while he may not get everything he wants in terms of ضريبة reform, our ضريبة law is ripe for change (both the Republicans and Democrats have called for this), and that change is likely to come before August 2017 before election season begins for 2018.

ترجمة: Could it become easier to borrow money?

Reduced regulation, one of the hallmarks of his campaign, would alمنخفض banks to step ارتفاع lending, something that has been very subdued since 2008. Another way that a Trump presidency could make it easier for consumers to own homes would be to منخفضer premiums forترجمة: FHA loansترجمة: or cutting guarantee fees for Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac.

ترجمة: How will regulations be affected?

Much of Trump’s platform has centered around deregulating the financial السوق in order to more fully revive it, and that alone could also give a boost to real estate. This is something that Trump — and the Republican party as a whole — has been vocal about.

Trump has proposed to reduce both Banking regulations and المبنى regulations. Loosening regulation on lending could boost homeownership by making it easier for consumers to obtain loans. As for المبنى regulations, at a National Realtor Association meeting, Trump estimated that 25% of costs to بناء a house related to regulations. He would like to get that هبوط to 2%. If construction is deregulated, this would mean more ميسر homes for consumers.

Will the الرهن العقاري interest deduction go away?

No! Last السنة, a ضريبة plan that Trump shared specifically and explicitly mentioned that he would preserve the الرهن العقاري interest deduction.

هل سيواصل برنامج 1031 Exchange (تبادل عقاري مماثل)?

Trump, who came under immense criticism for aggressively using the ضريبة code to تقريرedly not pay federal ضرائب, would likely preserve the controversial1031 ضريبة-free exchanges، والتي تسمح للمُلّاك ببيع العقار من دون دفع ضريبة أرباح رأس المال (Capital Gains Tax) إذا أعادوا استثمار عائدات البيع في استثمارات عقارية أخرى. وهذه السياسة الخاصة ببرنامج 1031 Exchange (تبادل عقاري مماثل) هي إحدى الركائز الأساسية لصناعة العقارات، وسيحافظ Trump على هذه السياسة.

ترجمة: What about immigration?

Trump’s immigration policy has undergone many changes since he first announced his candidacy, and immigration reform won’t be an easy bill to push through Congress or the Senate, so it’s difficult to determine whether this will influence the NYC real estate السوق to any large degree.

ترجمة: Will Trump be able to implement all his campaign positions?

For those of you who are feeling emotional about Trump being president after some of his outrageous rhetoric and behavior, remember that the US President does not have unrestrained power. Our founders did not want power to be controlled by just one man or one groارتفاع with the possibility of winding ارتفاع under the rule of another dictator or tyrant. Accordingly, our government is divided into three branches: the executive branch, the legislative branch, and the judicial branch. This is why many of Trump’s more outrageous campaign policy positions will not be a reality – either they will be opposed in the legislative branch or overturned by the judicial branch.

ترجمة: No question that this election was very divisive. But, now that the election is over, the American people will come together as we have always done. As Obama said of Trump: “ترجمة: We are all rooting for his successترجمة: ”.