What the 2026 Midterm Election Means for Manhattan and Miami Buyers

What changed, and what did not

Real estate comes down to supply and demand. Tuesday's election did not change the supply available to a buyer this morning. Whether it changes demand will depend on what follows: borrowing costs, financial markets and confidence among domestic and foreign buyers. For now, many of the rules that directly change the math in Manhattan and Miami were written in Albany and Tallahassee, and the property itself still decides the price.

Democrats are projected to control the House and Senate in the new Congress. Some races are uncalled and nothing is certified. The president keeps his veto, so a major federal tax change looks unlikely. Buyers should make their decisions under current law.

Washington still matters. Stocks rose on November 4 and the 10-year Treasury yield fell about six basis points to roughly 4.89%. That matters for cash buyers more than it sounds. Much of the cash at a closing table comes from a portfolio or a credit line secured by one, so equity values and lending terms still shape demand. Divided government can also bring budget and debt-limit confrontations that unsettle those same markets. Tax continuity does not guarantee financial stability.

One more thing cuts across both markets. My read is that the result could give foreign buyers a more welcoming signal after years of concern about the administration's immigration policies. That could feed interest in Manhattan and Miami. The administration still sets immigration policy, but the signal from voters points in a different direction.

The dollar weakened modestly after the result too. If that continues, buyers funding purchases in euros, pounds or other strengthening currencies gain purchasing power. That is a more direct financial benefit than a change in political sentiment, though neither has become evidence of renewed buying yet.

The wars matter too. Oil fell more than 8% on November 4 on expectations that pressure to end the Iran war will grow, and the vice president blamed the war for the election losses. A Democratic Congress could also press for more support for Ukraine. Neither result guarantees a quicker settlement. For our buyers, the potential benefit works two ways: cheaper oil could ease pressure on inflation and yields, while reduced geopolitical uncertainty could bring back some buyers who have been waiting.

Tariffs are one place the election changes less than people think. The Supreme Court already struck down the emergency tariffs imposed under IEEPA in February. The steel and aluminum tariffs that matter for construction were imposed under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act and remain in place. A change in congressional control does not automatically remove them. Construction input prices are running about 11% above last year, copper wire more than 20%, and the contractors' group ties a substantial part of the increase to fuel costs from the Iran war. And even when tariffs come down, suppliers do not necessarily give back the price increases they justified with them. Some of that increase becomes built into the cost of construction. So tariff relief, if it comes, may slow further increases without making new development meaningfully cheaper to build.

Manhattan

Supply: Scarcity at the Top

The election does not add or remove a single Manhattan apartment. Corcoran counted only 6,354 active listings in the third quarter, the lowest third-quarter supply since 2017, and sponsor, or new development, inventory is the lowest since the fourth quarter of 2012. Nothing in Tuesday's result changes that in the short term. Our Manhattan Q3 market report has the full breakdown.

That does not mean every apartment is scarce. Condition, building, neighborhood and price still determine how many real alternatives a buyer has. A finished apartment with little direct competition can hold its position while an apartment needing a major renovation sits. But the luxury market is performing much better than the entry-level market, so broad Manhattan numbers can obscure the strength where our buyers are looking.

Demand: Rates and the Pied-à-Terre Surcharge

With a major federal tax change unlikely, buyers have little reason to rush a transaction to get ahead of one.

Rates still count below the trophy tier, where buyers use jumbo loans and lines against their portfolios. Freddie Mac's weekly average for a 30-year fixed mortgage fell to 7.18% as of November 5, its third consecutive weekly decline. Mortgage News Daily puts the 30-year jumbo rate at 7.40%. Financing is improving, but borrowing costs remain high. If yields hold lower and actual borrowing terms continue to improve, that is a modest tailwind for financed luxury purchases. If they bounce, it is gone.

The bigger immediate influence on second-home demand is local. The pied-à-terre surcharge, effective since July 1, adds an annual cost for covered non-primary residences with an approximate market value of $5 million or more. Because the city's formula for determining which apartments qualify is convoluted and cannot be inferred from the asking price, see our NYC pied-à-terre tax guide to check how it applies to a specific residence. An owner has to compare paying it with changing the property's use, qualifying for an exemption or selling. Renting is an option only where the building permits it and the arrangement meets the exemption requirements.

Corcoran counted 162 signed contracts above $5 million in the third quarter: 53 in July, 52 in August and 57 in September. July was up 2% from a year earlier, August up 13%, and September flat. Those figures cover all buyers in that price range, not just second-home buyers, so they do not isolate the surcharge's effect. They do show that luxury transactions continued after it took effect.

My view is that the surcharge, which runs through June 2031 unless extended, gives some buyers another reason to negotiate, and Tuesday's election does not change that cost today. It does not establish how much a particular seller should concede. That still depends on the annual charge, the alternatives and the seller's position.

Externalities: Albany's Next Budget

New York's state election deserves attention too. Kathy Hochul won reelection, and unofficial returns show Democrats regaining a Senate supermajority while retaining one in the Assembly. That does not mean another tax increase is coming. It does mean the federal stalemate offers no protection from changes in Albany. For Manhattan owners, and buyers weighing a move to Florida, the next state budget matters more directly than Washington's party split.

Miami

Supply: Tight Today, New Towers Ahead

The election does not change Miami's luxury inventory. Waterfront land remains limited, and the completed ultra-luxury condo market is concentrated in a handful of buildings. Our Q3 report counted only 15 condo closings at $10 million or more across 11 buildings; five were at The Surf Club. That shows how concentrated activity is, rather than how much inventory is available.

The next generation of ultra-luxury condos is still being built, with several projects scheduled to deliver from 2027 through 2030. Those deliveries will change buyers' choices more directly than Tuesday's election. And even if tariffs ease, construction prices may retain increases already passed through by suppliers, keeping replacement costs elevated.

Demand: Tax Continuity and the New York Pipeline

Florida's state election points more toward continuity than a change in direction. Republican Byron Donalds won the governorship, and Republicans retained both legislative chambers, although they lost their two-thirds supermajority in the House and the Senate's was still in doubt in close races. I expect Florida's business-friendly, low-tax positioning to remain intact, with more limits on the legislature's ability to act unilaterally. For buyers considering a move, the election leaves the state's central attraction unchanged: no state income tax.

New York's pied-à-terre surcharge adds a separate consideration for buyers moving to Florida while keeping a Manhattan apartment valued at $5 million or more. If the apartment is subject to the surcharge, that additional annual cost may influence whether to retain it, rent instead when visiting, or sell. It does not mean buyers must give up owning in both cities. Our NYC vs. Miami comparison walks through the tax math.

New Yorkers were 34% of out-of-state buyers in the Miami area in the first half of 2026, according to MIAMI Realtors. At the top, $10 million-plus house closings rose from 29 to 38 in the third quarter, while condo closings at that level fell from 17 to 15. Buyers who want immediate occupancy and land are leaning toward houses, while some top-tier condo buyers are either waiting for the 2027 to 2030 wave of new deliveries or scrutinizing older buildings' reserves and milestone requirements.

The foreign buyer is another swing factor. A more welcoming political signal, greater purchasing power from a weaker dollar and less uncertainty abroad could help European and Latin American demand. The evidence will be in contracts, not the election result itself.

Direct mortgage exposure is lower in parts of this market: more than 80% of Miami condo sales above $1 million were all cash last year. Those buyers are still exposed to portfolio values, exchange rates and the return they give up by putting money into a property.

Externalities: Amendment 3 and Carrying Costs

Florida voters also approved Amendment 3 with about 62% of the vote, a decision that directly affects ownership costs. It raises the homestead exemption for non-school taxes to $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028, and lowers the annual assessment-growth cap on covered non-homestead property from 10% to 5%.

People who have not established permanent Florida residency by December 31, 2026 face different eligibility rules for the higher exemption, generally receiving it beginning in their fifth year of exemption. If a move is already planned, that date deserves attention. The exemption reduces taxable value, not the tax bill dollar for dollar, and the savings on a $10 million house should be calculated before they drive a decision.

Buyers also need a post-purchase tax estimate. The seller's bill can reflect assessment limits that do not carry over after a sale. A lower cap on future assessment growth does not mean the buyer inherits the seller's assessed value.

The other costs remain the property and the building. For a house, get insurance quotes and understand wind and flood coverage before committing. On a condo, the reserve study, milestone inspection, insurance, assessment history and planned work are part of the price. Read them before negotiating the unit.

What to do after the election, going into 2027

The election changes some expectations. The property still has to work.

If you plan to keep a Manhattan apartment valued at $5 million or more after moving to Florida, check whether the surcharge applies and calculate the annual cost based on your intended use. Then review New York residency with a tax adviser; we can introduce one. Florida domicile does not necessarily end New York income-tax residency.

If Manhattan will be your primary home, focus on the apartment's condition, carrying costs and competition in that building. A sustained improvement in financing may bring more buyers into your price range; a brief decline in yields is not a reason to chase an asking price.

If you are buying a Miami house, have inspections, insurance and the post-purchase tax estimate ready early. If you are buying a Miami condo, negotiate with a clear view of both competing units and the building's future expenses.

For sellers, the election is context, not a comparable sale. Price against current competition and signed contracts. A Manhattan second-home seller whose apartment is subject to the surcharge should be prepared to discuss it. A Miami condo seller should be prepared to answer questions about reserves, insurance and assessments.

Going into 2027, I would watch whether mortgage rates actually come down, whether foreign interest becomes signed contracts, and what the next budgets in Albany and Tallahassee mean for ownership costs. Those are the channels through which the election could become a real change in either market. Supply, unfortunately, moves glacially.

General information, not tax, legal or investment advice. Election results, laws and market data are as of November 5, 2026 and may change.